Model Predictions
| Model | Cal State Northridge Matadors | UC Santa Barbara Gauchos | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 28.2% | 71.8% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 45.5% | 54.5% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 41.9% | 58.1% | - | ✓ |
| Pythagorean | 21.9% | 78.1% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 39.7% | 60.3% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 40.1% | 59.9% | - | ✓ |
| Points Off/Def | 37.9% | 62.1% | - | ✓ |
Actual: UC Santa Barbara Gauchos +7 (61-54). Win probabilities: out-of-sample forecasts from the weekly fit before the game, the same forecasts as the model pages.
RAPM GS requires a reviewed game-score run and a qualified player and game match. A dash means the score is unavailable.
Cal State Northridge Matadors
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Nums | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jordyn Jackson * | 35 | 6-16 | 2-4 | 0-0 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 14 | 2 | +1.5 |
| Meghann Henderson * | 32 | 2-4 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 6 | -1.7 |
| Kayanna Spriggs * | 32 | 4-7 | 0-0 | 2-4 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 10 | 5 | +3.0 |
| Anaiyah Tu'ua * | 25 | 5-9 | 1-4 | 1-2 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 12 | 11 | +4.5 |
| Tess Amundsen * | 24 | 3-10 | 1-2 | 4-4 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 11 | 1 | +3.4 |
| Sydney Woodley | 19 | 1-7 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | +7.7 |
| Michelle Duchemin | 10 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 1-2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | -4.6 |
| Olivia Smith | 10 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -0.3 |
| Ashley Hawkins | 5 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | +1.4 |
| Macy Smith | 4 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | +0.3 |
| Rachel Harvey | 4 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -1 | -0.2 |
UC Santa Barbara Gauchos
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Nums | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Danae Miller * | 40 | 5-15 | 2-7 | 14-15 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 26 | 12 | -4.1 |
| Ila Lane * | 37 | 4-8 | 0-0 | 2-2 | 16 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 10 | 18 | -0.5 |
| Megan Anderson * | 27 | 1-5 | 0-3 | 3-3 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 2 | -5.2 |
| Johnni Gonzalez * | 20 | 1-4 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | -6.0 |
| Alexis Tucker * | 20 | 1-5 | 0-1 | 2-2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 0 | -3.5 |
| Lauren Lee | 14 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -4.1 |
| Kennedy Johnson | 11 | 3-4 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 6 | 10 | +0.9 |
| Alyssa Marin | 10 | 1-3 | 1-3 | 1-2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 1 | +0.6 |
| Taylor Mole | 8 | 1-4 | 0-2 | 1-1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | +0.2 |
| Callie Cooper | 6 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1-2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | +0.7 |
| Anya Choice | 5 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | -2 | +0.3 |
| Laurel Rockwood | 2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1.1 |
* = starter