Model Predictions
| Model | Northern Arizona Lumberjacks | Portland State Vikings | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 60.2% | 39.8% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 69.5% | 30.5% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 79.8% | 20.2% | - | ✓ |
| Pythagorean | 77.8% | 22.2% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 97.4% | 2.6% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 97.5% | 2.5% | - | ✓ |
| Points Off/Def | 79.8% | 20.2% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Portland State Vikings -11 (68-79). Win probabilities: out-of-sample forecasts from the weekly fit before the game, the same forecasts as the model pages.
RAPM GS requires a reviewed game-score run and a qualified player and game match. A dash means the score is unavailable.
Northern Arizona Lumberjacks
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Regan Schenck * | 38 | 2-6 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 9 | 12 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 5 | 16 | -1.4 |
| Khiarica Rasheed * | 36 | 8-17 | 0-2 | 9-10 | 12 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 25 | 23 | -3.2 |
| Lauren Orndoff * | 34 | 5-10 | 4-6 | 1-2 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 15 | 10 | -0.2 |
| Miki'ala Maio * | 24 | 2-6 | 0-0 | 2-2 | 2 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 6 | 6 | -9.0 |
| Emily Rodabaugh * | 19 | 2-5 | 2-4 | 2-2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 6 | -20.3 |
| Olivia Moran | 18 | 2-6 | 2-4 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 0 | -14.0 |
| Nyah Moran | 14 | 4-4 | 2-2 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10 | 6 | +16.4 |
| Sierra Mich'l | 8 | 2-3 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | +6.1 |
| Fatoumata Jaiteh | 6 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -9.6 |
| Teionni McDaniel | 3 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | -3.7 |
Portland State Vikings
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Esmeralda Morales * | 39 | 5-14 | 1-6 | 0-0 | 2 | 5 | 4 | 0 | 5 | 11 | 3 | -1.0 |
| Alaya Fitzgerald * | 37 | 9-12 | 3-4 | 2-3 | 5 | 8 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 23 | 24 | +13.5 |
| Savannah Dhaliwal * | 35 | 7-9 | 2-3 | 0-0 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 16 | 14 | -0.3 |
| Jada Lewis * | 26 | 3-12 | 2-7 | 0-0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 8 | -4 | -7.6 |
| Rhema Ogele * | 10 | 2-2 | 0-0 | 0-2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 1 | +6.6 |
| Reilly Kelty | 24 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 8 | +0.5 |
| M. 'Uhila | 16 | 2-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 0 | +10.6 |
| Morgan Baird | 5 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | +5.1 |
| Syd Schultz | 4 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | -5.3 |
| Marina Canzobre | 2 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | +2.7 |
| Itziar Ugarte | 2 | 0-1 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | +0.2 |
* = starter