Model Predictions
| Model | Duke Blue Devils | North Carolina Tar Heels | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 72.2% | 27.8% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 54.7% | 45.3% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 64.8% | 35.2% | -3.3 | ✓ (16.7 off) |
| Pythagorean | 53.6% | 46.4% | - | ✓ |
| Efficiency | 74.4% | 25.6% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 69.8% | 30.2% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 70.1% | 29.9% | - | ✓ |
Actual: North Carolina Tar Heels -20 (67-87). Predictions use season-end ratings.
Duke Blue Devils
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| W. Moore Jr. * | 33 | 5-6 | 0-0 | 3-3 | 8 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 13 | 22 | - |
| Paolo Banchero * | 31 | 5-14 | 2-4 | 1-2 | 10 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 13 | 10 | - |
| AJ Griffin * | 31 | 11-17 | 3-6 | 2-2 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 27 | 13 | - |
| Mark Williams * | 26 | 4-4 | 0-0 | 1-2 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 9 | 15 | - |
| Jeremy Roach * | 23 | 3-5 | 1-2 | 1-2 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 8 | - |
| Trevor Keels | 20 | 3-6 | 3-4 | 2-2 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 11 | 10 | - |
| Theo John | 13 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 6 | - |
| Bates Jones | 10 | 1-3 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | - |
| Joey Baker | 9 | 1-2 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 2 | -2 | - |
| Jaylen Blakes | 3 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | - |
| Michael Savarino | 1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - |
North Carolina Tar Heels
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brady Manek | 35 | 7-16 | 6-10 | 1-2 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 21 | 11 | - |
| Caleb Love | 32 | 3-10 | 1-5 | 1-2 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 8 | 0 | - |
| Kerwin Walton | 14 | 2-4 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 1 | - |
| Puff Johnson | 8 | 0-1 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | - |
| Justin McKoy | 7 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | - |
| Dontrez Styles | 3 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 1-1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | - |
| D'Marco Dunn | 2 | 1-1 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 | - |
| Leaky Black * | 37 | 2-4 | 0-0 | 0-1 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 9 | - |
| RJ Davis * | 32 | 4-11 | 0-3 | 3-4 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 11 | 5 | - |
| Armando Bacot * | 30 | 4-10 | 0-0 | 4-5 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 12 | 11 | - |
* = starter