Model Predictions
| Model | Mississippi State Bulldogs | Louisville Cardinals | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 47.0% | 53.0% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 70.1% | 29.9% | - | ✗ |
| Margin | 64.5% | 35.5% | -3.3 | ✗ (17.3 off) |
| Pythagorean | 56.2% | 43.8% | - | ✗ |
| Efficiency | 40.0% | 60.0% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 69.4% | 30.6% | - | ✗ |
| Log Adjusted | 69.6% | 30.4% | - | ✗ |
Actual: Louisville Cardinals +14 (72-58). Predictions use season-end ratings.
Mississippi State Bulldogs
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Garrison Brooks | 33 | 4-12 | 0-5 | 0-0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 0 | - |
| Iverson Molinar | 30 | 5-16 | 1-3 | 6-7 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 17 | 9 | - |
| Rocket Watts | 19 | 1-2 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 2 | -1 | - |
| Andersson Garcia | 18 | 0-3 | 0-0 | 1-2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 4 | - |
| Javian Davis | 10 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 3-4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 5 | - |
| Camryn Carter | 2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -1 | - |
| Shakeel Moore * | 29 | 4-13 | 0-4 | 1-2 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 9 | 4 | - |
| Tolu Smith * | 21 | 4-5 | 0-0 | 2-4 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 10 | 10 | - |
| D.J. Jeffries * | 18 | 1-5 | 0-1 | 2-2 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 6 | - |
| Cameron Matthews | 20 | 1-2 | 0-1 | 2-2 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 8 | - |
Louisville Cardinals
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. West * | 27 | 1-6 | 0-2 | 1-1 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 0 | - |
| N. Locke * | 26 | 1-9 | 0-3 | 0-0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -4 | - |
| M. Williams * | 23 | 4-8 | 0-2 | 0-1 | 10 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 8 | 7 | - |
| Jae'lyn Withers * | 21 | 4-6 | 2-4 | 1-2 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 11 | 7 | - |
| Dre Davis * | 17 | 4-8 | 2-5 | 2-2 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 12 | 11 | - |
| Samuell Williamson | 26 | 7-12 | 0-0 | 1-4 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 15 | 8 | - |
| M. Cross | 16 | 0-3 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -2 | - |
| E. Ellis | 14 | 1-6 | 1-2 | 2-4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 2 | - |
| M. Faulkner | 13 | 2-2 | 2-2 | 1-2 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 10 | - |
| R. Wheeler | 9 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 4-4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 8 | - |
| S. Curry | 8 | 2-3 | 0-0 | 1-2 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 6 | - |
* = starter