Model Predictions
| Model | Florida State Seminoles | Louisville Cardinals | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 2.5% | 97.5% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 15.6% | 84.4% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 16.2% | 83.8% | - | ✓ |
| Pythagorean | 45.8% | 54.2% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 2.9% | 97.1% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 2.6% | 97.4% | - | ✓ |
| Points Off/Def | 18.1% | 81.9% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Louisville Cardinals +13 (75-62). Win probabilities: out-of-sample forecasts from the weekly fit before the game, the same forecasts as the model pages.
RAPM GS requires a reviewed game-score run and a qualified player and game match. A dash means the score is unavailable.
Florida State Seminoles
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Morgan Jones * | 33 | 11-18 | 0-0 | 6-7 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 28 | 16 | +10.0 |
| Sammie Puisis * | 30 | 4-8 | 2-4 | 0-0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 10 | 3 | +8.8 |
| River Baldwin * | 30 | 3-7 | 0-0 | 2-2 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 8 | 12 | +12.0 |
| O'Mariah Gordon * | 26 | 3-7 | 0-1 | 2-3 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 8 | 2 | +14.9 |
| Erin Howard * | 24 | 1-4 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 6 | +15.6 |
| Bianca Jackson | 16 | 1-4 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -2 | -7.5 |
| Makayla Timpson | 15 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | -7.9 |
| Valencia Myers | 10 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | -6.6 |
| Sara Bejedi | 10 | 1-3 | 0-1 | 0-1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | -2 | -6.2 |
| Kourtney Weber | 5 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | +0.1 |
| Mariana Valenzuela | 1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | +2.3 |
Louisville Cardinals
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hailey Van Lith * | 38 | 3-10 | 1-3 | 2-2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 9 | 0 | +0.4 |
| E. Engstler * | 32 | 6-13 | 2-4 | 5-6 | 12 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 4 | 19 | 22 | -4.2 |
| K. Smith * | 30 | 3-13 | 2-6 | 0-0 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 4 | -8.3 |
| Olivia Cochran * | 29 | 6-10 | 1-1 | 4-4 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 17 | 13 | +4.6 |
| Chelsie Hall * | 16 | 0-3 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -12.1 |
| Mykasa Robinson | 28 | 3-5 | 0-0 | 3-4 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 9 | 13 | +11.6 |
| L. Dixon | 14 | 3-6 | 0-0 | 1-1 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 7 | 11 | +1.3 |
| Alana Smith | 11 | 2-3 | 1-1 | 1-2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 4 | +6.0 |
| Payton Verhulst | 2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +1.5 |
* = starter