Model Predictions
| Model | Missouri State Lady Bears | Evansville Purple Aces | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 94.9% | 5.1% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 92.2% | 7.8% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 93.4% | 6.6% | - | ✓ |
| Pythagorean | 81.6% | 18.4% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 99.9% | 0.1% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 99.9% | 0.1% | - | ✓ |
| Points Off/Def | 89.2% | 10.8% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Evansville Purple Aces -47 (35-82). Win probabilities: out-of-sample forecasts from the weekly fit before the game, the same forecasts as the model pages.
RAPM GS requires a reviewed game-score run and a qualified player and game match. A dash means the score is unavailable.
Missouri State Lady Bears
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mariah White * | 33 | 3-8 | 0-0 | 2-4 | 6 | 6 | 4 | 0 | 5 | 8 | 11 | +27.7 |
| Abigayle Jackson * | 30 | 10-15 | 0-0 | 5-5 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 25 | 18 | +31.2 |
| Sydney Wilson * | 30 | 5-12 | 1-4 | 2-2 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13 | 7 | +26.2 |
| Brice Calip * | 24 | 3-9 | 0-1 | 2-3 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 10 | +27.0 |
| Mya Bhinhar * | 24 | 2-5 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 4 | +20.6 |
| Ifunanya Nwachukwu | 22 | 3-6 | 0-0 | 2-2 | 9 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 8 | 9 | +7.0 |
| Paige Rocca | 21 | 6-8 | 2-3 | 0-0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 14 | 9 | +11.7 |
| Lindsey Byers | 16 | 1-2 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | +8.2 |
Evansville Purple Aces
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Je'Naiya Davis * | 28 | 1-10 | 0-4 | 4-6 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 6 | -6 | -27.7 |
| Abby Feit * | 26 | 1-5 | 0-2 | 1-2 | 13 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 9 | -20.1 |
| Myia Clark * | 22 | 1-8 | 0-2 | 7-8 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 9 | 3 | -17.3 |
| Anna Newman * | 19 | 0-3 | 0-1 | 2-3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 2 | -5 | -13.8 |
| NaTaya Partee * | 12 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -13.1 |
| Celine Dupont | 28 | 1-2 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | -20.5 |
| Elly Morgan | 21 | 1-2 | 0-1 | 1-2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 3 | -1 | -17.3 |
| Gala Camarena | 18 | 0-7 | 0-4 | 0-0 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 4 | 0 | -4 | -13.3 |
| A'Niah Griffin | 16 | 4-7 | 0-1 | 1-2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 9 | 1 | -8.9 |
| Rylie Stephens | 7 | 0-3 | 0-1 | 1-2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | -8.1 |
| Jossie Hudson | 3 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | +0.9 |
* = starter