Model Predictions
| Model | Portland Pilots | San Diego Toreros | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 43.3% | 56.7% | - | ✗ |
| Bradley-Terry | 57.6% | 42.4% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 50.0% | 50.0% | - | ✓ |
| Pythagorean | 53.8% | 46.2% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 60.9% | 39.1% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 60.8% | 39.2% | - | ✓ |
| Points Off/Def | 49.9% | 50.1% | - | ✗ |
Actual: San Diego Toreros -13 (55-68). Win probabilities: out-of-sample forecasts from the weekly fit before the game, the same forecasts as the model pages.
RAPM GS requires a reviewed game-score run and a qualified player and game match. A dash means the score is unavailable.
Portland Pilots
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lucy Cochrane * | 35 | 3-6 | 0-0 | 1-4 | 9 | 4 | 1 | 9 | 2 | 7 | 22 | +8.8 |
| Alex Fowler * | 29 | 10-15 | 0-1 | 1-1 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 21 | 11 | +11.1 |
| Haylee Andrews * | 23 | 4-6 | 0-0 | 4-4 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 12 | 11 | +4.5 |
| Maddie Muhlheim * | 20 | 2-4 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 5 | 2 | +7.3 |
| Emme Shearer * | 15 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 2-2 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 2 | +7.2 |
| Keeley Frawley | 21 | 0-1 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | -0.9 |
| Rose Pflug | 19 | 2-9 | 1-2 | 4-6 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 9 | 1 | -1.2 |
| Liana Kaitu'u | 11 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 0-1 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -0.7 |
| McKelle Meek | 11 | 2-3 | 2-3 | 0-0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 5 | +7.8 |
| Maisie Burnham | 10 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | -1 | +2.7 |
| MJ Bruno | 5 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -2.9 |
| Emily Sewell | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -0.4 |
San Diego Toreros
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Steph Gorman * | 31 | 2-5 | 1-3 | 1-1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 6 | -0.8 |
| Sydney Hunter * | 30 | 3-6 | 0-0 | 3-7 | 6 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 5 | 9 | 9 | -6.0 |
| Jordyn Edwards * | 25 | 3-7 | 0-1 | 0-1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 7 | 6 | -4 | -14.0 |
| Kasey Neubert * | 24 | 3-10 | 0-0 | 3-4 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 9 | 2 | -4.2 |
| Kendall Bird * | 22 | 3-8 | 0-0 | 2-2 | 9 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 8 | 9 | -5.6 |
| Erica Martinsen | 20 | 2-5 | 2-5 | 1-2 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 10 | +6.1 |
| Ayanna Khalfani | 19 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 2 | -2 | -0.3 |
| Harsimran Kaur | 9 | 0-3 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -1 | -0.9 |
| Laura Erikstrup | 9 | 4-5 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 8 | 2 | -4.3 |
| Kylie Horstmeyer | 6 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | -4.2 |
| Gabby Giuffre | 5 | 0-2 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -2.5 |
* = starter