Model Predictions
| Model | South Alabama Jaguars | Georgia State Panthers | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 20.3% | 79.7% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 44.4% | 55.6% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 30.7% | 69.3% | - | ✓ |
| Pythagorean | 33.9% | 66.1% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 19.6% | 80.4% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 19.2% | 80.8% | - | ✓ |
| Points Off/Def | 31.7% | 68.3% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Georgia State Panthers +6 (72-66). Win probabilities: out-of-sample forecasts from the weekly fit before the game, the same forecasts as the model pages.
RAPM GS requires a reviewed game-score run and a qualified player and game match. A dash means the score is unavailable.
South Alabama Jaguars
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mahogany Vaught * | 39 | 2-8 | 0-2 | 2-6 | 11 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 6 | 8 | -3.5 |
| Jaylin Powell * | 38 | 6-17 | 4-9 | 1-2 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 17 | 3 | +5.6 |
| Tyrielle Williams * | 34 | 0-5 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 0 | -3 | -7.7 |
| Kiana Anderson * | 27 | 4-7 | 0-0 | 2-4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 10 | 10 | -11.8 |
| Nadia Howard * | 27 | 6-16 | 0-2 | 4-4 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 16 | 4 | +1.2 |
| Janelle Jones | 21 | 3-6 | 1-3 | 0-1 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 5 | -0.7 |
| Destiny Samuel | 17 | 2-4 | 1-3 | 2-2 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 9 | +2.7 |
| Jordan Rosier | 14 | 1-6 | 1-5 | 0-0 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | -7.5 |
| Casey Ferguson | 8 | 0-2 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | -8.7 |
Georgia State Panthers
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kamryn Dziak * | 35 | 2-4 | 2-4 | 1-2 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 7 | -3.8 |
| Alex Gitchenko * | 31 | 3-8 | 1-1 | 2-4 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 9 | 9 | +3.0 |
| Ashley Foster * | 29 | 8-18 | 0-3 | 2-5 | 9 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 6 | 18 | 8 | +2.2 |
| Deasia Merrill * | 17 | 3-8 | 0-1 | 1-4 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 7 | 9 | +1.5 |
| Ciara Smith * | 15 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 0-2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -0.2 |
| Tehya Lyons | 28 | 2-7 | 0-0 | 4-4 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 8 | 10 | +5.1 |
| Hannah Sadler | 19 | 6-7 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 12 | 9 | -4.6 |
| Taniyah Worth | 18 | 2-6 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 8 | +7.4 |
| Alyssa Phillip | 14 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -4.6 |
| Elexus Bell | 9 | 3-6 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 6 | -2 | +4.7 |
| Nyla Jean | 5 | 0-1 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -1 | -2.2 |
| Mikyla Tolivert | 5 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | +1.9 |
* = starter