Model Predictions
| Model | Michigan State Spartans | Penn State Lady Lions | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 33.2% | 66.8% | - | ✗ |
| Bradley-Terry | 55.3% | 44.7% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 59.5% | 40.5% | - | ✓ |
| Pythagorean | 58.6% | 41.4% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 81.8% | 18.2% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 83.9% | 16.1% | - | ✓ |
| Points Off/Def | 56.7% | 43.3% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Penn State Lady Lions -21 (58-79). Win probabilities: out-of-sample forecasts from the weekly fit before the game, the same forecasts as the model pages.
RAPM GS requires a reviewed game-score run and a qualified player and game match. A dash means the score is unavailable.
Michigan State Spartans
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tamara Farquhar * | 37 | 3-6 | 0-0 | 2-4 | 14 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 8 | 14 | +10.3 |
| Matilda Ekh * | 36 | 6-12 | 3-7 | 0-0 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 15 | 8 | +13.6 |
| DeeDee Hagemann * | 35 | 4-9 | 4-6 | 1-2 | 3 | 9 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 13 | 15 | +9.8 |
| N. Clouden * | 34 | 5-10 | 3-6 | 3-3 | 5 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 16 | 11 | +12.4 |
| Alisia Smith * | 21 | 5-9 | 0-0 | 2-2 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 12 | 10 | -3.9 |
| Taiyier Parks | 23 | 7-10 | 0-0 | 1-3 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 15 | 16 | +23.8 |
| Jayla James | 9 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | +6.4 |
| Laurel Jacqmain | 5 | 0-1 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +4.0 |
Penn State Lady Lions
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Makenna Marisa * | 34 | 6-13 | 2-5 | 5-6 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 19 | 7 | -13.1 |
| Sha'Lynn Hagans * | 33 | 3-6 | 0-0 | 3-3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 9 | 3 | -5.7 |
| Kelly Jekot * | 32 | 1-7 | 1-5 | 0-0 | 2 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 7 | -9.4 |
| Leilani Kapinus * | 27 | 2-7 | 0-0 | 6-8 | 7 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 10 | 15 | -8.2 |
| Ali Brigham * | 23 | 5-6 | 0-0 | 1-1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 11 | 8 | +4.2 |
| Tova Sabel | 21 | 1-5 | 0-4 | 2-2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | -18.6 |
| Anna Camden | 21 | 1-7 | 0-4 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -3 | -8.2 |
| Niya Beverley | 7 | 0-1 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | -2.6 |
| Maddie Burke | 1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - |
| Kayla Thomas | 1 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -2 | -4.1 |
* = starter