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2022-02-19

Model Predictions

Model Illinois Fighting Illini Michigan State Spartans Spread Result
Elo 34.9% 65.1% -
Bradley-Terry 45.6% 54.4% -
Margin 42.9% 57.1% +1.6 (6.6 off)
Pythagorean 57.3% 42.7% -
Efficiency 54.3% 45.7% -
Adjusted Efficiency 68.2% 31.8% -
Log Adjusted 68.4% 31.6% -

Actual: Michigan State Spartans -5 (74-79). Predictions use season-end ratings.

Illinois Fighting Illini

Player MIN FG 3PT FT REB AST STL BLK TO PTS Numbers RAPM GS
T. Frazier * 37 3-9 2-7 4-4 3 5 0 0 0 12 11 -
J. Grandison * 31 8-12 6-10 2-2 5 5 0 0 1 24 21 -
K. Cockburn * 31 10-15 0-0 7-9 9 1 1 0 4 27 19 -
D. Williams * 30 1-4 0-2 0-0 4 1 2 0 0 2 5 -
A. Plummer * 27 3-9 0-3 2-3 1 1 0 0 0 8 1 -
C. Hawkins 14 1-4 0-1 0-0 4 2 1 1 0 2 6 -
A. Curbelo 13 1-5 0-2 1-2 2 2 1 0 1 3 2 -
R. Melendez 9 0-2 0-2 0-0 2 0 0 0 2 0 -2 -
O. Payne 6 0-0 0-0 1-3 2 0 0 0 0 1 3 -
B. Bosmans-Verdonk 2 0-0 0-0 0-0 1 0 1 0 0 0 2 -

Michigan State Spartans

Player MIN FG 3PT FT REB AST STL BLK TO PTS Numbers RAPM GS
J. Marble 22 4-7 0-0 0-1 10 1 0 1 1 8 12 -
G. Brown 21 2-8 1-5 0-0 1 1 1 0 0 5 0 -
M. Bingham Jr. 13 1-3 1-3 0-0 2 0 1 1 3 3 1 -
P. Brooks 5 0-2 0-1 0-0 0 0 0 0 0 0 -2 -
M. Christie * 36 3-9 0-2 0-1 5 0 0 0 1 6 1 -
A. Hoggard * 33 6-11 0-0 3-5 4 8 1 1 3 15 15 -
J. Hauser * 22 3-5 3-5 2-2 3 2 0 0 0 11 11 -
T. Walker 26 10-12 3-3 3-3 1 5 0 1 1 26 20 -
M. Hall 16 0-3 0-1 0-0 6 1 2 0 1 0 5 -
J. Akins 4 0-2 0-1 0-0 0 0 0 0 1 0 -3 -
M. Sissoko 2 0-0 0-0 0-0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 -

* = starter