Model Predictions
| Model | Arkansas State Red Wolves | Texas State Bobcats | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 11.6% | 88.4% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 27.2% | 72.8% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 11.7% | 88.3% | +11.1 | ✓ (6.1 off) |
| Pythagorean | 33.3% | 66.7% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 10.4% | 89.6% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 10.3% | 89.7% | - | ✓ |
| Points Off/Def | 27.1% | 72.9% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Texas State Bobcats +5 (69-64). Predictions use season-end ratings.
Arkansas State Red Wolves
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marquis Eaton * | 37 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 12 | 16 | - |
| Caleb Fields * | 35 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 19 | 23 | - |
| Antwon Jackson * | 20 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 8 | - |
| Malik Brevard * | 14 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 5 | - |
| Christian Willis * | 14 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 5 | - |
| Canberk Kus | 22 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 10 | - |
| J.J. Matthews | 20 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 10 | - |
| Melo Eggleston | 9 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -1 | - |
Texas State Bobcats
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nijal Pearson * | 38 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 7 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 27 | 38 | - |
| Marlin Davis * | 31 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 6 | 9 | - |
| Shelby Adams * | 31 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 15 | - |
| Isiah Small * | 19 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 8 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 16 | - |
| Eric Terry * | 19 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 10 | 16 | - |
| Quentin Scott | 24 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 8 | - |
| Alonzo Sule | 18 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 8 | - |
| Caleb Asberry | 18 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 7 | - |
| Drew Tennial | 2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - |
* = starter