Model Predictions
| Model | Murray State Racers | Belmont Bruins | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | Data withheld: source-integrity hold | |||
| Bradley-Terry | 46.0% | 54.0% | - | ✗ |
| Margin | 37.4% | 62.6% | +2.8 | ✗ (14.8 off) |
| Pythagorean | 47.7% | 52.3% | - | ✗ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 51.2% | 48.8% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 51.1% | 48.9% | - | ✓ |
| Points Off/Def | 43.2% | 56.8% | - | ✗ |
Actual: Belmont Bruins -12 (65-77). Predictions use season-end ratings.
Murray State Racers
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ja Morant * | 40 | 13-25 | 1-4 | 9-9 | 7 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 7 | 36 | 17 | - |
| S. Buchanan * | 40 | 2-11 | 0-4 | 1-2 | 9 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 8 | - |
| Tevin Brown * | 38 | 3-5 | 2-4 | 4-4 | 9 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12 | 18 | - |
| KJ Williams * | 26 | 4-6 | 0-0 | 1-4 | 11 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 9 | 16 | - |
| Darnell Cowart * | 19 | 5-9 | 0-0 | 1-3 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 11 | 6 | - |
| Jaiveon Eaves | 19 | 0-2 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | - |
| Devin Gilmore | 11 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | - |
| Brion Sanchious | 7 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | - |
Belmont Bruins
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dylan Windler * | 37 | 7-15 | 1-7 | 2-2 | 12 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 17 | 17 | - |
| Kevin McClain * | 36 | 5-17 | 2-8 | 2-3 | 7 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 14 | 9 | - |
| Grayson Murphy * | 31 | 4-9 | 1-3 | 1-2 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 10 | 7 | - |
| Michael Benkert * | 28 | 0-4 | 0-4 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -3 | - |
| Seth Adelsperger * | 22 | 2-2 | 0-0 | 3-4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 6 | - |
| Nick Hopkins | 18 | 2-6 | 2-5 | 0-0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 4 | - |
| Caleb Hollander | 13 | 1-6 | 1-5 | 0-0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | -2 | - |
| Derek Sabin | 10 | 3-3 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 5 | - |
| Adam Kunkel | 5 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | - |
* = starter