Model Predictions
| Model | Las Vegas Aces | Phoenix Mercury | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 59.3% | 40.7% | - | ✗ |
| Bradley-Terry | 58.1% | 41.9% | - | ✗ |
| Margin | 63.3% | 36.7% | -3.0 | ✗ (5.0 off) |
| Pythagorean | 49.9% | 50.1% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 62.8% | 37.2% | - | ✗ |
| Log Adjusted | 62.8% | 37.2% | - | ✗ |
| Points Off/Def | 50.6% | 49.4% | - | ✗ |
Actual: Phoenix Mercury +2 (86-84). Predictions use season-end ratings.
Las Vegas Aces
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A'ja Wilson * | 33 | 4-19 | 0-0 | 3-3 | 9 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 11 | - | - | |
| Kayla McBride * | 29 | 5-10 | 1-3 | 4-5 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 15 | - | - | |
| Kelsey Plum * | 25 | 4-12 | 2-5 | 0-0 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 10 | - | - | |
| Jackie Young * | 21 | 3-10 | 2-2 | 0-0 | 7 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 8 | - | - | |
| Carolyn Swords * | 17 | 1-4 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | - | - | |
| Sugar Rodgers | 18 | 2-5 | 2-4 | 1-2 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 7 | - | - | |
| Dearica Hamby | 15 | 4-4 | 0-0 | 2-2 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 10 | - | - | |
| Sydney Colson | 14 | 3-3 | 0-0 | 2-2 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 8 | - | - | |
| Liz Cambage | 13 | 4-8 | 1-2 | 4-4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13 | - | - | |
| Tamera Young | 9 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | - | - |
Phoenix Mercury
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brittney Griner * | 37 | 8-11 | 0-0 | 2-5 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 18 | - | - | |
| Yvonne Turner * | 35 | 6-11 | 2-6 | 4-4 | 3 | 10 | 2 | 0 | 18 | - | - | |
| Briann January * | 34 | 5-6 | 5-5 | 1-2 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 16 | - | - | |
| Essence Carson * | 33 | 7-14 | 3-5 | 3-3 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 20 | - | - | |
| DeWanna Bonner * | 32 | 5-13 | 0-4 | 2-2 | 12 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 12 | - | - | |
| Sancho Lyttle | 12 | 1-4 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | - | - | |
| Sophie Cunningham | 7 | 0-2 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | |
| Alanna Smith | 2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | |
| Brianna Turner | 2 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | |
| Arica Carter | 2 | 0-1 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - |
* = starter