Model Predictions
| Model | Virginia Cavaliers | Dayton Flyers | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 64.4% | 35.6% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 60.1% | 39.9% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 44.6% | 55.4% | +1.2 | ✗ (8.2 off) |
| Pythagorean | 76.5% | 23.5% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 94.6% | 5.4% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 94.6% | 5.4% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Dayton Flyers -7 (59-66). Predictions use season-end ratings.
Virginia Cavaliers
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D. Hunter * | 39 | 8-11 | 1-2 | 6-6 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 23 | 18 | - |
| K. Guy * | 38 | 5-11 | 2-6 | 2-2 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 14 | 6 | - |
| B. Key * | 33 | 1-6 | 0-3 | 1-2 | 6 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 9 | - |
| T. Jerome * | 27 | 3-10 | 2-6 | 7-10 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 15 | 8 | - |
| M. Diakite * | 8 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | - |
| K. Clark | 30 | 3-7 | 2-3 | 1-2 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 9 | 6 | - |
| J. Salt | 20 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | - |
| J. Huff | 5 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | - |
Dayton Flyers
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Crutcher * | 37 | 4-9 | 3-6 | 0-1 | 2 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 11 | 11 | - |
| T. Landers * | 35 | 4-10 | 0-3 | 1-2 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 9 | 9 | - |
| J. Cunningham * | 32 | 6-8 | 0-0 | 3-5 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 15 | 8 | - |
| J. Davis * | 32 | 2-6 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 0 | - |
| R. Mikesell * | 19 | 1-2 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 4 | - |
| O. Toppin | 26 | 6-7 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 13 | 12 | - |
| J. Matos | 13 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | - |
| D. Cohill | 6 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | - |
* = starter