Model Predictions
| Model | Air Force Falcons | UMBC Retrievers | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | Data withheld: source-integrity hold | |||
| Bradley-Terry | 30.8% | 69.2% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 37.0% | 63.0% | +2.9 | ✓ (2.1 off) |
| Pythagorean | 36.2% | 63.8% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 49.9% | 50.1% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 50.0% | 50.0% | - | ✗ |
| Points Off/Def | 41.9% | 58.1% | - | ✓ |
Actual: UMBC Retrievers +5 (77-72). Ratings: 2018-19 season-end ratings.
Air Force Falcons
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lavelle Scottie * | 46 | 2-10 | 1-6 | 3-4 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 8 | 4 | - |
| Keaton Van Soelen * | 39 | 4-8 | 0-1 | 1-1 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 9 | 7 | - |
| Ryan Swan * | 39 | 7-11 | 0-3 | 3-6 | 8 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 17 | 13 | - |
| Pervis Louder * | 35 | 2-4 | 0-1 | 1-2 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 5 | - |
| Sid Tomes * | 30 | 5-15 | 3-9 | 7-8 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 20 | 5 | - |
| A.J. Walker | 28 | 3-9 | 0-4 | 0-0 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 6 | - |
| Chris Joyce | 13 | 1-3 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 3 | - |
| Ameka Akaya | 11 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | -2 | - |
| Caleb Morris | 9 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | - |
UMBC Retrievers
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arkel Lamar * | 45 | 4-11 | 2-6 | 0-1 | 11 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 10 | 13 | - |
| Joe Sherburne * | 43 | 9-14 | 4-7 | 2-2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 24 | 11 | - |
| K.J. Jackson * | 42 | 3-12 | 0-5 | 5-10 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 11 | 6 | - |
| Max Curran * | 38 | 4-5 | 0-1 | 8-12 | 10 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 16 | 21 | - |
| Ricky Council II * | 13 | 1-5 | 1-5 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | -2 | - |
| Brandon Horvath | 38 | 3-9 | 2-7 | 3-4 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 11 | 10 | - |
| Jose Placer | 12 | 1-4 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | - |
| RJ Eytle-Rock | 8 | 0-2 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -1 | - |
| Sam Schwietz | 6 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | - |
| Josh Rosario | 5 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - |
* = starter