Model Predictions
| Model | Virginia Cavaliers | North Carolina Tar Heels | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 57.9% | 42.1% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 48.4% | 51.6% | - | ✗ |
| Margin | 26.2% | 73.8% | +5.7 | ✗ (13.7 off) |
| Pythagorean | 49.7% | 50.3% | - | ✗ |
| Efficiency | 80.2% | 19.8% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 72.4% | 27.6% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 72.5% | 27.5% | - | ✓ |
Actual: North Carolina Tar Heels -8 (61-69). Predictions use season-end ratings.
Virginia Cavaliers
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D. Hunter * | 37 | 7-10 | 3-3 | 3-4 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 20 | 18 | - |
| Ty Jerome * | 37 | 5-9 | 2-3 | 3-5 | 4 | 11 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 15 | 19 | - |
| K. Guy * | 36 | 7-13 | 5-9 | 1-3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 20 | 9 | - |
| K. Clark * | 27 | 1-4 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 5 | - |
| J. Salt * | 10 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4 | - |
| M. Diakite | 23 | 2-3 | 0-0 | 2-2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 6 | 8 | - |
| B. Key | 22 | 0-2 | 0-2 | 1-3 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 5 | - |
| J. Huff | 8 | 1-3 | 0-1 | 0-1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | - |
North Carolina Tar Heels
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K. Williams * | 38 | 3-10 | 3-7 | 0-0 | 4 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 9 | 11 | - |
| C. White * | 37 | 6-19 | 3-11 | 2-2 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 17 | 0 | - |
| L. Maye * | 36 | 2-10 | 0-3 | 0-0 | 11 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 6 | - |
| G. Brooks * | 32 | 5-8 | 0-0 | 2-2 | 8 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 12 | 15 | - |
| C. Johnson * | 31 | 6-14 | 2-7 | 2-3 | 7 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 16 | 12 | - |
| B. Robinson | 18 | 1-3 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 5 | - |
| A. Platek | 3 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | - |
| S. Woods | 3 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | -1 | - |
| N. Little | 2 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | - |
* = starter