Model Predictions
| Model | North Carolina Tar Heels | Duke Blue Devils | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | Data withheld: source-integrity hold | |||
| Bradley-Terry | 29.3% | 70.7% | - | ✗ |
| Margin | 19.0% | 81.0% | +8.0 | ✗ (24.0 off) |
| Pythagorean | 45.2% | 54.8% | - | ✗ |
| Efficiency | 37.6% | 62.4% | - | ✗ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 36.4% | 63.6% | - | ✗ |
| Log Adjusted | 36.2% | 63.8% | - | ✗ |
Actual: Duke Blue Devils -16 (72-88). Predictions use season-end ratings.
North Carolina Tar Heels
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Luke Maye * | 37 | 14-24 | 1-4 | 1-2 | 15 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 30 | 23 | - |
| Kenny Williams * | 33 | 1-4 | 0-3 | 0-0 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 8 | - |
| Garrison Brooks * | 30 | 6-7 | 0-0 | 2-2 | 8 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 14 | 17 | - |
| Cameron Johnson * | 30 | 11-17 | 0-4 | 4-5 | 7 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 26 | 22 | - |
| Coby White * | 28 | 3-14 | 1-6 | 2-2 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 9 | -1 | - |
| Brandon Robinson | 18 | 0-3 | 0-3 | 0-0 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | - |
| Seventh Woods | 12 | 2-3 | 0-0 | 1-3 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 5 | 5 | - |
| Nassir Little | 11 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | -1 | - |
| Brandon Huffman | 1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - |
Duke Blue Devils
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RJ Barrett * | 40 | 11-22 | 3-11 | 8-10 | 13 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 33 | 24 | - |
| Tre Jones * | 40 | 1-11 | 1-6 | 0-0 | 8 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 7 | - |
| Cam Reddish * | 35 | 10-23 | 4-12 | 3-5 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 27 | 5 | - |
| Marques Bolden * | 18 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 2 | - |
| Zion Williamson * | 1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -1 | - |
| Jack White | 22 | 0-5 | 0-5 | 2-2 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 0 | - |
| Javin DeLaurier | 19 | 3-3 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 9 | - |
| Alex O'Connell | 17 | 0-4 | 0-3 | 1-2 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | - |
| Jordan Goldwire | 8 | 0-3 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -2 | - |
* = starter