Model Predictions
| Model | Cal Poly Mustangs | UC Santa Barbara Gauchos | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 6.3% | 93.7% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 12.2% | 87.8% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 5.2% | 94.8% | +16.0 | ✓ (6.0 off) |
| Pythagorean | 16.7% | 83.3% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 2.4% | 97.6% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 2.4% | 97.6% | - | ✓ |
| Points Off/Def | 19.5% | 80.5% | - | ✓ |
Actual: UC Santa Barbara Gauchos +22 (75-53). Predictions use season-end ratings.
Cal Poly Mustangs
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Victor Joseph * | 32 | 3-11 | 1-4 | 6-6 | 7 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 13 | 9 | - |
| Donovan Fields * | 32 | 1-7 | 0-2 | 2-2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 3 | - |
| Mark Crowe * | 21 | 3-3 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 6 | - |
| Aleks Abrams * | 20 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 2-2 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 9 | - |
| Luke Meikle * | 13 | 1-6 | 0-1 | 2-2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | - |
| Josh Martin | 24 | 2-8 | 0-2 | 1-2 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 1 | - |
| Hank Hollingsworth | 14 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 1-2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | - |
| Trevor John | 10 | 1-3 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | - |
| Jakub Niziol | 10 | 1-4 | 1-3 | 2-2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 2 | - |
| Marcellus Garrick | 10 | 1-4 | 0-1 | 4-4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 2 | - |
| Iziah James | 7 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -1 | - |
| Karlis Garoza | 7 | 0-3 | 0-0 | 2-2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -1 | - |
UC Santa Barbara Gauchos
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marcus Jackson * | 29 | 1-6 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 2 | - |
| Leland King * | 26 | 3-8 | 2-3 | 0-0 | 6 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 8 | 11 | - |
| Gabe Vincent * | 26 | 4-8 | 2-5 | 2-4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 12 | 8 | - |
| Max Heidegger * | 25 | 4-12 | 3-8 | 1-1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 12 | 2 | - |
| Jalen Canty * | 19 | 5-6 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 8 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 10 | 13 | - |
| Christian Terrell | 18 | 4-8 | 1-2 | 3-4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 12 | 5 | - |
| Brandon Davis | 17 | 1-1 | 1-1 | 1-2 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 7 | - |
| Ami Lakoju | 16 | 5-8 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 10 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 10 | 14 | - |
| Jarriesse Blackmon | 11 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 4 | - |
| Alex Hart | 6 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -1 | - |
| Maxwell Kupchak | 3 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -1 | - |
| Sam Walters | 2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - |
| J.D. Slajchert | 2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | - |
* = starter