Model Predictions
| Model | Hartford Hawks | UMBC Retrievers | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 10.3% | 89.7% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 27.2% | 72.8% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 23.0% | 77.0% | +6.6 | ✓ (8.4 off) |
| Pythagorean | 43.0% | 57.0% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 30.6% | 69.4% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 30.8% | 69.2% | - | ✓ |
| Points Off/Def | 35.6% | 64.4% | - | ✓ |
Actual: UMBC Retrievers +15 (75-60). Predictions use season-end ratings.
Hartford Hawks
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mark Plousis | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - |
| Jason Dunne * | 37 | 5-16 | 4-11 | 1-4 | 6 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 5 | 15 | 7 | - |
| John Carroll * | 36 | 6-13 | 0-1 | 3-5 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 15 | 4 | - |
| J.R. Lynch * | 34 | 3-8 | 1-5 | 1-2 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 8 | 3 | - |
| Travis Weatherington * | 20 | 3-6 | 2-5 | 0-0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 8 | 4 | - |
| Hassan Attia * | 16 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 3-8 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 10 | - |
| George Blagojevic | 26 | 2-3 | 1-2 | 0-2 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 11 | - |
| Jack Hobbs | 24 | 2-5 | 2-4 | 0-0 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 5 | - |
| Andrew Ramirez | 4 | 0-1 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -1 | - |
| Max Twyman | 3 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - |
UMBC Retrievers
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K.J. Maura * | 40 | 6-11 | 3-7 | 3-4 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 18 | 12 | - |
| Jairus Lyles * | 36 | 6-16 | 1-7 | 0-1 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 13 | -2 | - |
| Joe Sherburne * | 28 | 3-10 | 1-5 | 4-4 | 9 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 11 | 12 | - |
| Arkel Lamar * | 26 | 4-6 | 3-4 | 2-4 | 8 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 13 | 16 | - |
| Jourdan Grant | 29 | 3-5 | 2-4 | 3-4 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 11 | 12 | - |
| Nolan Gerrity | 16 | 2-4 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 6 | - |
| Max Curran | 10 | 2-3 | 0-0 | 0-2 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 5 | - |
* = starter