Model Predictions
| Model | Valparaiso Beacons | Missouri State Bears | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 43.6% | 56.4% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 34.2% | 65.8% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 27.4% | 72.6% | +5.4 | ✓ (1.4 off) |
| Pythagorean | 41.5% | 58.5% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 30.4% | 69.6% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 30.8% | 69.2% | - | ✓ |
| Points Off/Def | 38.0% | 62.0% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Missouri State Bears +4 (83-79). Predictions use season-end ratings.
Valparaiso Beacons
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tevonn Walker * | 37 | 8-17 | 3-6 | 6-6 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 25 | 17 | - |
| Bakari Evelyn * | 35 | 5-12 | 3-6 | 0-3 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 13 | 11 | - |
| Max Joseph * | 25 | 3-6 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 3 | - |
| Derrik Smits * | 23 | 1-5 | 0-0 | 5-7 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 7 | 8 | - |
| Mileek McMillan * | 6 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | -2 | - |
| Markus Golder | 24 | 3-5 | 2-3 | 5-5 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 13 | 13 | - |
| Micah Bradford | 22 | 3-7 | 2-4 | 0-0 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 7 | - |
| Jaume Sorolla | 16 | 2-3 | 0-0 | 3-4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 7 | 9 | - |
| John Kiser | 12 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | - |
Missouri State Bears
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alize Johnson * | 36 | 8-18 | 1-3 | 5-7 | 19 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 22 | 27 | - |
| Jarred Dixon * | 36 | 3-9 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 7 | 1 | - |
| Jarrid Rhodes * | 35 | 6-10 | 4-6 | 4-4 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 20 | 17 | - |
| Obediah Church * | 27 | 3-6 | 0-0 | 1-2 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 7 | 11 | - |
| Mustafa Lawrence * | 16 | 1-4 | 0-2 | 4-4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 4 | - |
| J.T. Miller | 21 | 1-5 | 0-0 | 1-3 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 6 | - |
| Ryan Kreklow | 17 | 3-6 | 1-4 | 4-4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 11 | 6 | - |
| Tanveer Bhullar | 12 | 3-6 | 0-0 | 1-3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 3 | - |
* = starter