Model Predictions
| Model | North Carolina Tar Heels | Virginia Cavaliers | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 27.6% | 72.4% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 34.9% | 65.1% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 48.1% | 51.9% | +0.4 | ✓ (7.6 off) |
| Pythagorean | 41.3% | 58.7% | - | ✓ |
| Efficiency | 11.2% | 88.8% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 10.6% | 89.4% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 10.5% | 89.5% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Virginia Cavaliers +8 (71-63). Predictions use season-end ratings.
North Carolina Tar Heels
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| T. Pinson * | 35 | 1-10 | 0-3 | 2-2 | 8 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 7 | - |
| L. Maye * | 34 | 7-13 | 4-7 | 2-4 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 20 | 14 | - |
| J. Berry II * | 34 | 5-12 | 4-9 | 3-3 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 17 | 8 | - |
| K. Williams * | 32 | 5-8 | 2-5 | 0-0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12 | 6 | - |
| C. Johnson * | 23 | 1-3 | 0-1 | 2-2 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 5 | - |
| G. Brooks | 14 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 3-4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 5 | - |
| S. Woods | 10 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | - |
| B. Robinson | 10 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 1-2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 4 | - |
| A. Platek | 6 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | - |
| S. Manley | 2 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | - |
Virginia Cavaliers
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D. Hall * | 39 | 3-5 | 3-4 | 6-6 | 5 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 15 | 17 | - |
| K. Guy * | 36 | 7-15 | 2-4 | 0-0 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 16 | 9 | - |
| T. Jerome * | 35 | 4-14 | 2-5 | 2-2 | 6 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 12 | 10 | - |
| I. Wilkins * | 32 | 2-5 | 0-1 | 2-2 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 6 | - |
| J. Salt * | 22 | 2-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 4 | - |
| D. Hunter | 18 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 8-10 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 10 | 13 | - |
| N. Johnson | 10 | 2-4 | 2-3 | 2-2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 4 | - |
| M. Diakite | 8 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | - |
* = starter