Model Predictions
| Model | North Carolina Tar Heels | Duke Blue Devils | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 16.3% | 83.7% | - | ✗ |
| Bradley-Terry | 28.3% | 71.7% | - | ✗ |
| Margin | 19.4% | 80.6% | +7.8 | ✗ (12.8 off) |
| Pythagorean | 42.4% | 57.6% | - | ✗ |
| Efficiency | 29.0% | 71.0% | - | ✗ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 27.9% | 72.1% | - | ✗ |
| Log Adjusted | 27.7% | 72.3% | - | ✗ |
Actual: Duke Blue Devils -5 (69-74). Predictions use season-end ratings.
North Carolina Tar Heels
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kenny Williams * | 39 | 4-9 | 2-7 | 0-0 | 6 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 10 | 12 | - |
| J. Berry II * | 37 | 3-11 | 3-7 | 4-4 | 5 | 6 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 13 | 15 | - |
| Luke Maye * | 33 | 8-18 | 0-1 | 1-3 | 10 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 17 | 13 | - |
| Cameron Johnson * | 29 | 4-10 | 2-7 | 0-0 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 10 | 5 | - |
| Theo Pinson * | 28 | 3-8 | 0-1 | 2-2 | 4 | 7 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 8 | 12 | - |
| Garrison Brooks | 16 | 3-7 | 0-0 | 4-6 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 10 | 7 | - |
| Sterling Manley | 9 | 3-6 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 2 | - |
| Brandon Robinson | 4 | 0-1 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | - |
| Seventh Woods | 3 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -1 | - |
| Brandon Huffman | 2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | -2 | - |
Duke Blue Devils
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Grayson Allen * | 40 | 4-11 | 4-10 | 4-5 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 16 | 11 | - |
| M. Bagley III * | 39 | 7-13 | 0-1 | 5-6 | 13 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 19 | 16 | - |
| G. Trent Jr. * | 38 | 7-16 | 2-7 | 4-4 | 6 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 20 | 14 | - |
| Trevon Duval * | 30 | 0-6 | 0-3 | 0-0 | 3 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 1 | - |
| W. Carter Jr. * | 30 | 4-7 | 0-1 | 6-8 | 9 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 14 | 20 | - |
| Alex O'Connell | 9 | 0-1 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | -2 | - |
| Marques Bolden | 7 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 3 | - |
| Javin DeLaurier | 6 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - |
| Jack White | 1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - |
* = starter