Model Predictions
| Model | San José State Spartans | New Mexico Lobos | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 12.8% | 87.2% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 34.9% | 65.1% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 22.5% | 77.5% | - | ✓ |
| Pythagorean | 31.2% | 68.8% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 10.0% | 90.0% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 9.9% | 90.1% | - | ✓ |
| Points Off/Def | 23.0% | 77.0% | - | ✓ |
Actual: New Mexico Lobos +33 (80-47). Win probabilities: out-of-sample forecasts from the weekly fit before the game, the same forecasts as the model pages.
RAPM GS requires a reviewed game-score run and a qualified player and game match. A dash means the score is unavailable.
San José State Spartans
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan Welage * | 37 | 6-19 | 2-4 | 3-3 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 17 | 2 | -28.6 |
| Isaiah Nichols * | 26 | 1-5 | 0-3 | 0-0 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 4 | -15.0 |
| Ashtin Chastain * | 24 | 2-6 | 0-0 | 1-4 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 6 | -20.9 |
| Noah Baumann * | 23 | 1-3 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 3 | -2 | -15.1 |
| Keith Fisher III * | 14 | 2-3 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 1 | -3.5 |
| Jaycee Hillsman | 23 | 0-2 | 0-1 | 9-11 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 9 | 8 | -23.8 |
| Oumar Barry | 16 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1-2 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 6 | -16.2 |
| Brandon Mitchell | 15 | 0-3 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | -2 | -13.0 |
| Nai Carlisle | 13 | 2-3 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 0 | -9.4 |
| Caleb Simmons | 9 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2-4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | -1.4 |
New Mexico Lobos
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joe Furstinger * | 31 | 3-5 | 1-2 | 3-4 | 9 | 4 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 10 | 24 | +26.7 |
| Dane Kuiper * | 28 | 1-9 | 1-8 | 1-2 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | +21.7 |
| Anthony Mathis * | 23 | 4-10 | 2-8 | 2-2 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12 | 9 | +12.5 |
| Vladimir Pinchuk * | 21 | 2-4 | 0-0 | 2-5 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 8 | +17.2 |
| Antino Jackson * | 21 | 4-6 | 3-5 | 0-0 | 0 | 7 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 11 | 13 | +23.4 |
| Chris McNeal | 32 | 4-11 | 2-8 | 2-4 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 12 | 4 | +23.1 |
| Makuach Maluach | 23 | 6-9 | 2-2 | 1-2 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 15 | 12 | +16.2 |
| Jachai Simmons | 19 | 3-5 | 2-3 | 0-0 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 9 | +4.7 |
| Mike Mondragon | 2 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | - |
* = starter