Model Predictions
| Model | UMBC Retrievers | Vermont Catamounts | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 14.1% | 85.9% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 33.1% | 66.9% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 24.8% | 75.2% | - | ✓ |
| Pythagorean | 40.6% | 59.4% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 12.4% | 87.6% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 12.1% | 87.9% | - | ✓ |
| Points Off/Def | 26.9% | 73.1% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Vermont Catamounts +15 (71-56). Win probabilities: out-of-sample forecasts from the weekly fit before the game, the same forecasts as the model pages.