Model Predictions
| Model | Northern Arizona Lumberjacks | Idaho State Bengals | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 33.7% | 66.3% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 42.4% | 57.6% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 30.7% | 69.3% | - | ✓ |
| Pythagorean | 27.4% | 72.6% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 23.4% | 76.6% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 23.3% | 76.7% | - | ✓ |
| Points Off/Def | 25.8% | 74.2% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Idaho State Bengals +4 (64-60). Win probabilities: out-of-sample forecasts from the weekly fit before the game, the same forecasts as the model pages.
RAPM GS requires a reviewed game-score run and a qualified player and game match. A dash means the score is unavailable.
Northern Arizona Lumberjacks
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gino Littles * | 38 | 7-14 | 2-4 | 6-9 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 22 | 16 | +2.2 |
| JoJo Anderson * | 31 | 2-9 | 1-3 | 6-6 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 11 | 6 | -2.4 |
| Brooks DeBisschop * | 29 | 4-6 | 0-0 | 0-2 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 8 | 7 | -9.2 |
| Chris Bowling * | 17 | 0-4 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | -5 | -9.4 |
| Isaiah Thomas * | 15 | 2-3 | 0-0 | 0-1 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 7 | +4.7 |
| Corey Brown | 22 | 4-9 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 9 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 8 | 7 | -4.1 |
| Torry Johnson | 22 | 3-5 | 1-2 | 0-1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 4 | +0.2 |
| Lenell Henry | 15 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 0-1 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -0.5 |
| Karl Harris | 11 | 0-4 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -1 | +1.9 |
Idaho State Bengals
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Geno Luzcando * | 37 | 3-7 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 7 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 6 | 8 | -2.0 |
| Jared Stutzman * | 34 | 6-9 | 2-4 | 4-5 | 8 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 18 | 18 | -2.2 |
| Novak Topalovic * | 31 | 4-10 | 0-0 | 3-6 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 11 | 9 | +0.7 |
| Balint Mocsan * | 27 | 3-7 | 3-5 | 1-4 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 10 | 10 | +4.9 |
| Blake Truman * | 15 | 3-7 | 1-4 | 0-0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 4 | +4.6 |
| Erik Nakken | 18 | 0-4 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -2.4 |
| Brandon Boyd | 18 | 2-7 | 0-3 | 3-4 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 7 | -1 | -1.9 |
| Sam Dowd | 9 | 2-3 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 5 | 1 | -1.2 |
| Gary Chivichyan | 8 | 0-1 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -1 | -0.2 |
| Callum Kimberley | 3 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - |
| Hayes Garrity | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - |
* = starter