Model Predictions
| Model | North Dakota Fighting Hawks | Montana State Bobcats | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 32.5% | 67.5% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 38.5% | 61.5% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 41.0% | 59.0% | - | ✓ |
| Pythagorean | 37.3% | 62.7% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 51.0% | 49.0% | - | ✗ |
| Log Adjusted | 51.3% | 48.7% | - | ✗ |
| Points Off/Def | 33.8% | 66.2% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Montana State Bobcats +11 (79-68). Win probabilities: out-of-sample forecasts from the weekly fit before the game, the same forecasts as the model pages.
RAPM GS requires a reviewed game-score run and a qualified player and game match. A dash means the score is unavailable.
North Dakota Fighting Hawks
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cortez Seales * | 35 | 7-11 | 0-0 | 1-5 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 15 | 9 | -5.2 |
| Geno Crandall * | 32 | 4-10 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 9 | 5 | -2.0 |
| Tray Buchanan * | 29 | 5-11 | 4-10 | 5-6 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 19 | 13 | -12.1 |
| Conner Avants * | 27 | 3-5 | 0-0 | 0-1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 6 | 3 | -3.6 |
| Jafar Kinsey * | 6 | 0-2 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | -0.4 |
| Dale Jones | 25 | 2-5 | 0-2 | 0-1 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 7 | +1.6 |
| Billy Brown | 22 | 1-2 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 5 | -12.0 |
| Marlon Stewart | 17 | 2-6 | 2-3 | 4-4 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 10 | 7 | -11.8 |
| Kienan Walter | 7 | 0-1 | 0-1 | 2-2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | +1.8 |
Montana State Bobcats
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Harald Frey * | 34 | 4-13 | 3-8 | 3-4 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 14 | 4 | +5.9 |
| Tyler Hall * | 32 | 7-15 | 5-12 | 6-6 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 25 | 16 | +15.1 |
| Devonte Klines * | 22 | 2-7 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 0 | -12.0 |
| Sam Neumann * | 21 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 8 | -2.4 |
| Keljin Blevins * | 20 | 2-6 | 0-1 | 2-2 | 11 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 6 | 10 | -2.4 |
| Joe Mvuezolo Jr. | 21 | 6-8 | 1-2 | 1-3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 14 | 8 | +9.0 |
| Zach Green | 20 | 3-6 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 5 | +8.2 |
| Konner Frey | 15 | 4-7 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 7 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 9 | +12.8 |
| Lassi Nikkarinen | 11 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | -1.1 |
| Benson Osayande | 4 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -1 | -1.0 |
* = starter