Model Predictions
| Model | Chicago State Cougars | UMBC Retrievers | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 1.7% | 98.3% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 4.2% | 95.8% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 1.6% | 98.4% | +22.7 | ✓ (11.7 off) |
| Pythagorean | 2.2% | 97.8% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 1.0% | 99.0% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 1.0% | 99.0% | - | ✓ |
| Points Off/Def | 11.4% | 88.6% | - | ✓ |
Actual: UMBC Retrievers +11 (84-73). Predictions use season-end ratings.
Chicago State Cougars
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anthony Harris * | 37 | 4-8 | 0-0 | 2-2 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 10 | 7 | - |
| Glen Burns * | 32 | 7-8 | 0-0 | 1-2 | 6 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 15 | 19 | - |
| Fred Sims * | 28 | 3-11 | 0-1 | 2-2 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 8 | 2 | - |
| Deionte Simmons * | 21 | 5-6 | 0-0 | 1-1 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 11 | 9 | - |
| Montana Byrd * | 9 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | - |
| Travon Bell | 23 | 3-8 | 3-7 | 0-0 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 9 | 5 | - |
| Jelani Pruitt | 16 | 3-9 | 0-0 | 4-5 | 10 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 10 | 10 | - |
| Patrick Szpir | 15 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 0 | - |
| Cameron Bowles | 8 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -1 | - |
| Rob Shaw | 7 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | -1 | - |
| Simeon Henton | 4 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 2-2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 3 | - |
UMBC Retrievers
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jairus Lyles * | 33 | 4-11 | 2-4 | 3-5 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 13 | 10 | - |
| Jourdan Grant * | 33 | 3-9 | 1-4 | 1-2 | 3 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 8 | 9 | - |
| Arkel Lamar * | 24 | 6-10 | 5-5 | 0-2 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 17 | 12 | - |
| Nolan Gerrity * | 14 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 2-4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 5 | - |
| Max Curran * | 8 | 0-2 | 0-2 | 2-2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -1 | - |
| K.J. Maura | 26 | 0-3 | 0-2 | 1-2 | 5 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 10 | - |
| Joe Sherburne | 22 | 6-13 | 5-9 | 2-2 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 19 | 10 | - |
| Max Portmann | 14 | 3-6 | 0-0 | 2-2 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 6 | - |
| Daniel Akin | 13 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 6 | - |
| Brandon Horvath | 9 | 2-5 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 7 | - |
| Josh Rosario | 3 | 0-1 | 0-1 | 3-4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | - |
| Ishmail Jabbie | 1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -1 | - |
* = starter