Model Predictions
| Model | Little Rock Trojans | Arkansas State Red Wolves | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 38.7% | 61.3% | - | ✗ |
| Bradley-Terry | 34.7% | 65.3% | - | ✗ |
| Margin | 33.0% | 67.0% | +3.9 | ✗ (7.9 off) |
| Pythagorean | 38.9% | 61.1% | - | ✗ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 39.6% | 60.4% | - | ✗ |
| Log Adjusted | 39.5% | 60.5% | - | ✗ |
| Points Off/Def | 41.2% | 58.8% | - | ✗ |
Actual: Arkansas State Red Wolves -4 (78-82). Predictions use season-end ratings.
Little Rock Trojans
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan Pippins * | 36 | 2-8 | 2-4 | 2-2 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 8 | 3 | - |
| Camron Reedus * | 34 | 7-12 | 4-8 | 4-4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 22 | 8 | - |
| Jaizec Lottie * | 27 | 2-4 | 1-2 | 3-5 | 7 | 6 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 8 | 17 | - |
| Oliver Black * | 23 | 3-3 | 0-0 | 2-2 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 8 | 14 | - |
| Ben Marcus | 19 | 6-8 | 0-0 | 2-5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 14 | 9 | - |
| Cameron Corcoran | 14 | 2-6 | 2-4 | 2-2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 8 | 2 | - |
| Damir Hadzic | 10 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | - |
| Anthony Black | 9 | 1-3 | 0-1 | 2-2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 3 | - |
Arkansas State Red Wolves
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ty Cockfield * | 33 | 9-15 | 5-8 | 4-4 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 27 | 15 | - |
| Marquis Eaton * | 32 | 3-7 | 1-2 | 1-2 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 8 | 5 | - |
| Tamas Bruce * | 29 | 4-8 | 0-0 | 3-9 | 7 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 11 | 12 | - |
| Grantham Gillard * | 29 | 2-9 | 2-7 | 2-3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 1 | - |
| Tristin Walley * | 23 | 2-4 | 1-2 | 1-2 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 7 | - |
| Rashad Lindsey | 27 | 5-8 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 11 | 8 | - |
| Connor Kern | 16 | 2-4 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 6 | - |
| Salif Boudie | 11 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | - |
* = starter