Model Predictions
| Model | South Alabama Jaguars | Texas State Bobcats | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 28.9% | 71.1% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 48.1% | 51.9% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 43.7% | 56.3% | - | ✓ |
| Pythagorean | 45.1% | 54.9% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 57.7% | 42.3% | - | ✗ |
| Log Adjusted | 57.7% | 42.3% | - | ✗ |
| Points Off/Def | 44.7% | 55.3% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Texas State Bobcats +3 (72-69). Win probabilities: out-of-sample forecasts from the weekly fit before the game, the same forecasts as the model pages.
RAPM GS requires a reviewed game-score run and a qualified player and game match. A dash means the score is unavailable.
South Alabama Jaguars
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Nums | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rodrick Sikes * | 35 | 6-18 | 2-10 | 4-4 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 18 | 6 | +1.9 |
| Josh Ajayi * | 33 | 7-10 | 3-5 | 8-9 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 25 | 20 | -2.4 |
| Herb McGee * | 30 | 2-6 | 2-3 | 0-0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 3 | +3.6 |
| Trhae Mitchell * | 29 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 2-2 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 5 | -6.4 |
| Nick Davis * | 26 | 4-6 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 7 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 9 | 10 | -3.4 |
| Dederick Lee | 16 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | -2.0 |
| Jordan Andrews | 11 | 1-7 | 1-6 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | -4 | -15.1 |
| Joe Thompson | 10 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | +2.7 |
| Kevin Morris | 10 | 2-5 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 3 | -3.9 |
Texas State Bobcats
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Nums | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nijal Pearson * | 29 | 4-8 | 1-4 | 3-3 | 7 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 12 | 13 | +6.5 |
| Alex Peacock * | 29 | 6-9 | 4-5 | 2-3 | 6 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 18 | 18 | -9.5 |
| Marlin Davis * | 27 | 0-3 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 4 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 6 | +0.3 |
| Tyler Blount * | 25 | 2-10 | 1-6 | 0-0 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 1 | -3.6 |
| Immanuel King * | 22 | 8-12 | 0-0 | 0-1 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 16 | 6 | -12.5 |
| Eric Terry | 18 | 2-3 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 4 | +18.8 |
| Tre'Larenz Nottingham | 16 | 1-7 | 1-3 | 1-1 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 1 | +8.1 |
| Shelby Adams | 14 | 3-8 | 0-3 | 2-2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 0 | +4.6 |
| Nedeljko Prijovic | 11 | 2-2 | 0-0 | 1-2 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 12 | +12.3 |
| Deris Duncan | 8 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | +4.9 |
| Reggie Miller | 1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -4.7 |
* = starter