Model Predictions
| Model | Missouri State Bears | Illinois State Redbirds | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 31.4% | 68.6% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 35.5% | 64.5% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 45.7% | 54.3% | +0.9 | ✓ (3.1 off) |
| Pythagorean | 57.4% | 42.6% | - | ✗ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 60.0% | 40.0% | - | ✗ |
| Log Adjusted | 59.6% | 40.4% | - | ✗ |
| Points Off/Def | 47.9% | 52.1% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Illinois State Redbirds +4 (72-68). Predictions use season-end ratings.
Missouri State Bears
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jarrid Rhodes * | 34 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 13 | - |
| Alize Johnson * | 32 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 12 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 16 | 25 | - |
| Obediah Church * | 23 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 6 | - |
| Jarred Dixon * | 19 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 6 | - |
| Ryan Kreklow * | 16 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | - |
| J.T. Miller | 29 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 11 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 16 | 30 | - |
| Ronnie Rousseau | 28 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 16 | 16 | - |
| Reggie Scurry | 14 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 5 | 7 | - |
| Abdul Fofana | 5 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - |
Illinois State Redbirds
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Milik Yarbrough * | 32 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 23 | 32 | - |
| Phil Fayne * | 30 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 23 | 29 | - |
| Keyshawn Evans * | 30 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 15 | - |
| Madison Williams * | 25 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | - |
| Daouda N'Diaye * | 8 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | - |
| Matt Hein | 24 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 8 | - |
| Isaac Gassman | 20 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 7 | - |
| Taylor Bruninga | 16 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 13 | - |
| William Tinsley | 15 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 8 | - |
* = starter