Model Predictions
| Model | Missouri State Bears | Illinois State Redbirds | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 36.0% | 64.0% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 50.1% | 49.9% | - | ✗ |
| Margin | 54.5% | 45.5% | - | ✗ |
| Pythagorean | 61.0% | 39.0% | - | ✗ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 72.6% | 27.4% | - | ✗ |
| Log Adjusted | 72.6% | 27.4% | - | ✗ |
| Points Off/Def | 58.5% | 41.5% | - | ✗ |
Actual: Illinois State Redbirds +4 (72-68). Win probabilities: out-of-sample forecasts from the weekly fit before the game, the same forecasts as the model pages.
RAPM GS requires a reviewed game-score run and a qualified player and game match. A dash means the score is unavailable.
Missouri State Bears
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jarrid Rhodes * | 34 | 4-8 | 1-5 | 0-0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 5 | +1.9 |
| Alize Johnson * | 32 | 6-12 | 3-7 | 1-1 | 12 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 16 | 13 | -0.8 |
| Obediah Church * | 23 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1-2 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 6 | -4.3 |
| Jarred Dixon * | 19 | 2-5 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 1 | +6.9 |
| Ryan Kreklow * | 16 | 0-5 | 0-4 | 0-0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -4 | -0.9 |
| J.T. Miller | 29 | 6-12 | 1-3 | 3-4 | 11 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 16 | 18 | -9.4 |
| Ronnie Rousseau III | 28 | 6-10 | 3-5 | 1-2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 16 | 6 | -1.7 |
| Reggie Scurry | 14 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 3-4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 5 | 5 | +0.8 |
| Abdul Fofana | 5 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -5.9 |
Illinois State Redbirds
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Milik Yarbrough * | 32 | 8-17 | 1-3 | 6-8 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 23 | 15 | -1.0 |
| Phil Fayne * | 30 | 7-10 | 0-0 | 9-10 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 23 | 19 | +2.4 |
| Keyshawn Evans * | 30 | 2-9 | 1-5 | 3-4 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 6 | +5.9 |
| Madison Williams * | 25 | 0-2 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | -11.4 |
| Daouda N'Diaye * | 8 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 2-2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | -2.3 |
| Matt Hein | 24 | 2-7 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 1 | +4.9 |
| Isaac Gassman | 20 | 0-1 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 6 | +7.4 |
| Taylor Bruninga | 16 | 2-5 | 2-5 | 0-1 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 8 | - |
| William Tinsley | 15 | 2-5 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 3 | +5.9 |
* = starter