Model Predictions
| Model | Stephen F. Austin Lumberjacks | Northwestern State Demons | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 71.6% | 28.4% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 79.3% | 20.7% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 81.6% | 18.4% | - | ✓ |
| Pythagorean | 93.0% | 7.0% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 98.0% | 2.0% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 98.1% | 1.9% | - | ✓ |
| Points Off/Def | 81.5% | 18.5% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Northwestern State Demons -8 (56-64). Win probabilities: out-of-sample forecasts from the weekly fit before the game, the same forecasts as the model pages.
RAPM GS requires a reviewed game-score run and a qualified player and game match. A dash means the score is unavailable.
Stephen F. Austin Lumberjacks
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Nums | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kevon Harris * | 34 | 6-9 | 0-2 | 8-9 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 20 | 13 | -15.7 |
| Ivan Canete * | 24 | 2-11 | 0-7 | 4-4 | 6 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 8 | 6 | +1.0 |
| TJ Holyfield * | 22 | 3-3 | 0-0 | 5-7 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 11 | 16 | +7.2 |
| Leon Gilmore III * | 19 | 0-3 | 0-1 | 0-1 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | -2 | -15.9 |
| John Comeaux * | 14 | 2-3 | 0-0 | 2-4 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 8 | -1.3 |
| Aaron Augustin | 26 | 0-2 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | -3.5 |
| Shannon Bogues | 23 | 7-11 | 0-3 | 0-3 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 14 | 5 | +5.2 |
| Ty Charles | 17 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 5 | -7.0 |
| Samuli Nieminen | 15 | 1-3 | 0-2 | 1-2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | +0.3 |
| Nathan Bain | 6 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | +2.4 |
Northwestern State Demons
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Nums | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CJ Jones * | 39 | 4-14 | 3-7 | 4-8 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 15 | -1 | +2.1 |
| Ishmael Lane * | 28 | 2-5 | 0-1 | 6-9 | 9 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 10 | 15 | +6.9 |
| Darian Dixon * | 23 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 1-5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 | -5.3 |
| Iziahiah Sweeney * | 19 | 3-9 | 0-2 | 1-2 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 1 | -2.8 |
| Malik Metoyer * | 18 | 0-2 | 0-2 | 1-2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | +0.7 |
| Brandon Hutton | 24 | 3-6 | 1-2 | 1-1 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 7 | +2.1 |
| Vonte Ott | 19 | 2-6 | 0-2 | 1-2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 2 | +2.5 |
| Larry Owens | 12 | 2-2 | 0-0 | 0-1 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 5 | -0.5 |
| Caleb Starks | 11 | 0-1 | 0-1 | 0-1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | +4.1 |
| Jacob Guest | 7 | 1-2 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | +7.0 |
| Cameron Lazare | 0 | 0-1 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | +0.0 |
* = starter