Model Predictions
| Model | Arkansas Razorbacks | Auburn Tigers | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 44.8% | 55.2% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 56.2% | 43.8% | - | ✗ |
| Margin | 58.2% | 41.8% | - | ✗ |
| Pythagorean | 51.0% | 49.0% | - | ✗ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 76.2% | 23.8% | - | ✗ |
| Log Adjusted | 76.3% | 23.7% | - | ✗ |
| Points Off/Def | 52.6% | 47.4% | - | ✗ |
Actual: Auburn Tigers +11 (88-77). Win probabilities: out-of-sample forecasts from the weekly fit before the game, the same forecasts as the model pages.
RAPM GS requires a reviewed game-score run and a qualified player and game match. A dash means the score is unavailable.
Arkansas Razorbacks
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Daryl Macon * | 38 | 3-11 | 0-5 | 4-4 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 10 | 5 | +4.8 |
| Jaylen Barford * | 33 | 8-14 | 3-7 | 2-3 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 21 | 11 | +6.5 |
| Anton Beard * | 26 | 5-12 | 1-5 | 0-0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 11 | 0 | -1.6 |
| Daniel Gafford * | 17 | 3-7 | 0-0 | 2-5 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 8 | 6 | -4.4 |
| Dustin Thomas * | 12 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 2-3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 3 | -7.8 |
| Trey Thompson | 23 | 3-4 | 0-0 | 2-2 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 12 | +7.4 |
| Darious Hall | 21 | 3-3 | 0-0 | 1-2 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 9 | +3.4 |
| Adrio Bailey | 17 | 1-4 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | +9.3 |
| Arlando Cook | 10 | 2-3 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 9 | +5.2 |
| C.J. Jones | 3 | 1-3 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | - |
Auburn Tigers
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bryce Brown * | 30 | 4-9 | 3-6 | 2-2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13 | 5 | -1.1 |
| Jared Harper * | 29 | 3-9 | 1-3 | 7-9 | 1 | 8 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 14 | 14 | +0.0 |
| Mustapha Heron * | 28 | 7-14 | 3-4 | 0-1 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 17 | 8 | +0.2 |
| Desean Murray * | 26 | 5-8 | 0-0 | 5-6 | 8 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 15 | 18 | +3.1 |
| Anfernee McLemore * | 15 | 2-5 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 3 | +4.9 |
| Davion Mitchell | 23 | 3-3 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 5 | -0.5 |
| Chuma Okeke | 19 | 4-8 | 2-4 | 0-0 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 10 | 7 | -2.4 |
| Horace Spencer | 19 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1-2 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 5 | -10.7 |
| Malik Dunbar | 11 | 2-2 | 1-1 | 2-2 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 9 | - |
* = starter