Model Predictions
| Model | San Diego Toreros | Saint Mary's Gaels | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 6.9% | 93.1% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 24.2% | 75.8% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 23.3% | 76.7% | - | ✓ |
| Pythagorean | 43.9% | 56.1% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 13.5% | 86.5% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 13.5% | 86.5% | - | ✓ |
| Points Off/Def | 26.9% | 73.1% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Saint Mary's Gaels +7 (70-63). Win probabilities: out-of-sample forecasts from the weekly fit before the game, the same forecasts as the model pages.
RAPM GS requires a reviewed game-score run and a qualified player and game match. A dash means the score is unavailable.
San Diego Toreros
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Isaiah Wright * | 39 | 6-12 | 1-5 | 5-9 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 18 | 5 | - |
| Olin Carter * | 39 | 2-9 | 0-2 | 4-4 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 3 | - |
| Cameron Neubauer * | 26 | 1-3 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | - |
| Tyler Williams * | 23 | 0-4 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | - |
| Isaiah Pineiro * | 20 | 5-10 | 0-2 | 7-7 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 17 | 8 | - |
| Juwan Gray | 28 | 6-6 | 4-4 | 0-0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 16 | 13 | - |
| Alex Floresca | 20 | 1-2 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 5 | - |
| Yauhen Massalski | 5 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | - |
Saint Mary's Gaels
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Emmett Naar * | 40 | 9-15 | 0-2 | 6-6 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 24 | 13 | - |
| Jock Landale * | 40 | 6-13 | 0-0 | 10-12 | 10 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 22 | 20 | - |
| Tanner Krebs * | 35 | 1-4 | 1-4 | 1-2 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 6 | - |
| Calvin Hermanson * | 34 | 2-6 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 4 | - |
| Jordan Ford * | 10 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | - |
| Cullen Neal | 25 | 3-5 | 0-2 | 8-11 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 14 | 13 | - |
| Evan Fitzner | 16 | 1-2 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | - |
* = starter