Model Predictions
| Model | Portland Pilots | Santa Clara Broncos | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 22.6% | 77.4% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 50.7% | 49.3% | - | ✗ |
| Margin | 45.7% | 54.3% | - | ✓ |
| Pythagorean | 37.4% | 62.6% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 44.5% | 55.5% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 44.5% | 55.5% | - | ✓ |
| Points Off/Def | 49.6% | 50.4% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Santa Clara Broncos +2 (70-68). Win probabilities: out-of-sample forecasts from the weekly fit before the game, the same forecasts as the model pages.
RAPM GS requires a reviewed game-score run and a qualified player and game match. A dash means the score is unavailable.
Portland Pilots
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh McSwiggan * | 39 | 6-9 | 3-4 | 2-2 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 17 | 16 | +3.5 |
| Tahirou Diabate * | 38 | 7-11 | 0-0 | 1-1 | 10 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 15 | 17 | +2.6 |
| JoJo Walker * | 28 | 2-8 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 4 | -2 | +8.1 |
| Franklin Porter * | 25 | 4-7 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 10 | +3.7 |
| Philipp Hartwich * | 23 | 2-5 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 8 | +9.6 |
| D'Marques Tyson | 15 | 1-2 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | -4.4 |
| Marcus Shaver Jr. | 14 | 5-9 | 1-3 | 2-2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 13 | 1 | -3.7 |
| Malcolm Porter | 12 | 2-4 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 2 | -7.3 |
| Rashad Jackson | 4 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -1 | -7.6 |
| Joseph Smoyer | 2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +1.2 |
Santa Clara Broncos
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Henry Caruso * | 40 | 2-8 | 1-4 | 2-4 | 10 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 14 | +0.3 |
| Matt Hauser * | 39 | 7-13 | 5-10 | 3-4 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 22 | 16 | -0.4 |
| KJ Feagin * | 39 | 5-12 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 1 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 10 | 6 | -1.8 |
| Josip Vrankic * | 35 | 7-18 | 2-8 | 3-4 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 19 | 10 | +6.3 |
| Emmanuel Ndumanya * | 17 | 2-3 | 0-0 | 3-3 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 9 | -6.8 |
| Kai Healy | 17 | 2-3 | 0-1 | 1-2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 3 | +2.2 |
| Shaquille Walters | 11 | 0-1 | 0-1 | 0-1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -6.3 |
| Jarvis Pugh | 2 | 0-2 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | -3.4 |
* = starter