Model Predictions
| Model | North Carolina Tar Heels | Duke Blue Devils | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 16.3% | 83.7% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 28.3% | 71.7% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 19.4% | 80.6% | +7.8 | ✓ (2.2 off) |
| Pythagorean | 42.4% | 57.6% | - | ✓ |
| Efficiency | 29.0% | 71.0% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 27.9% | 72.1% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 27.7% | 72.3% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Duke Blue Devils +10 (74-64). Predictions use season-end ratings.
North Carolina Tar Heels
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kenny Williams * | 37 | 4-10 | 3-8 | 2-2 | 8 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 13 | 13 | - |
| J. Berry II * | 36 | 3-11 | 0-7 | 0-0 | 2 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 6 | 1 | - |
| Cameron Johnson * | 35 | 5-17 | 4-12 | 2-2 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 16 | 4 | - |
| Theo Pinson * | 33 | 6-10 | 0-1 | 0-1 | 8 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 12 | 9 | - |
| Luke Maye * | 33 | 6-15 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 7 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 13 | 7 | - |
| Garrison Brooks | 11 | 2-4 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 4 | - |
| Brandon Robinson | 5 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | - |
| Seventh Woods | 5 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - |
| Andrew Platek | 3 | 0-1 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - |
| Sterling Manley | 1 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | - |
| Brandon Huffman | 1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - |
Duke Blue Devils
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Grayson Allen * | 40 | 5-14 | 2-7 | 3-5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 6 | 15 | 10 | - |
| G. Trent Jr. * | 36 | 5-16 | 3-10 | 0-0 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 13 | 5 | - |
| M. Bagley III * | 33 | 9-14 | 1-2 | 2-5 | 15 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 21 | 23 | - |
| W. Carter Jr. * | 25 | 3-7 | 1-1 | 2-2 | 9 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 9 | 13 | - |
| Javin DeLaurier * | 12 | 1-2 | 0-1 | 1-2 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 4 | - |
| Trevon Duval | 21 | 3-4 | 1-1 | 0-3 | 0 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 7 | 12 | - |
| Marques Bolden | 17 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 1-3 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 7 | - |
| Alex O'Connell | 14 | 1-4 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | - |
| Jack White | 2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | - |
* = starter