Model Predictions
| Model | North Carolina Tar Heels | Louisville Cardinals | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 54.7% | 45.3% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 45.0% | 55.0% | - | ✗ |
| Margin | 68.4% | 31.6% | -4.2 | ✓ (12.8 off) |
| Pythagorean | 68.0% | 32.0% | - | ✓ |
| Efficiency | 92.7% | 7.3% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 85.5% | 14.5% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 85.6% | 14.4% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Louisville Cardinals -17 (76-93). Predictions use season-end ratings.
North Carolina Tar Heels
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Berry II * | 36 | 9-20 | 5-11 | 0-0 | 8 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 23 | 16 | - |
| K. Williams * | 36 | 5-8 | 1-4 | 0-0 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 11 | 10 | - |
| C. Johnson * | 35 | 5-13 | 2-4 | 0-0 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 12 | 4 | - |
| L. Maye * | 34 | 8-18 | 3-6 | 0-0 | 13 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 19 | 18 | - |
| T. Pinson * | 29 | 6-11 | 1-2 | 6-6 | 7 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 19 | 20 | - |
| S. Manley | 9 | 3-3 | 0-0 | 2-2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 7 | - |
| G. Brooks | 9 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 1-2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | - |
| S. Woods | 8 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | - |
| B. Robinson | 4 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | - |
Louisville Cardinals
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| R. Spalding * | 36 | 8-14 | 0-0 | 2-3 | 12 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 18 | 16 | - |
| Q. Snider * | 35 | 4-15 | 4-6 | 0-0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 12 | -1 | - |
| V.J. King * | 23 | 1-7 | 0-3 | 3-4 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 3 | - |
| A. Mahmoud * | 19 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 1-2 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 5 | - |
| D. Perry * | 8 | 0-2 | 0-1 | 3-4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 | - |
| D. Adel | 30 | 8-12 | 2-4 | 2-4 | 4 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 20 | 19 | - |
| D. Sutton | 24 | 3-3 | 0-0 | 0-3 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 10 | - |
| R. McMahon | 15 | 2-5 | 1-2 | 2-2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 3 | - |
| M. Williams | 5 | 1-2 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | - |
| J. Nwora | 5 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | - |
* = starter