Model Predictions
| Model | North Carolina Tar Heels | Virginia Cavaliers | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 39.4% | 60.6% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 54.2% | 45.8% | - | ✗ |
| Margin | 44.9% | 55.1% | - | ✓ |
| Pythagorean | 48.3% | 51.7% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 28.5% | 71.5% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 28.4% | 71.6% | - | ✓ |
| Points Off/Def | 40.8% | 59.2% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Virginia Cavaliers +12 (61-49). Win probabilities: out-of-sample forecasts from the weekly fit before the game, the same forecasts as the model pages.
RAPM GS requires a reviewed game-score run and a qualified player and game match. A dash means the score is unavailable.
North Carolina Tar Heels
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joel Berry II * | 34 | 7-17 | 3-8 | 0-0 | 8 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 17 | 10 | +4.1 |
| Luke Maye * | 32 | 2-10 | 1-2 | 1-3 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 3 | -6.1 |
| Kenny Williams * | 32 | 4-9 | 3-6 | 0-0 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 11 | 10 | -5.4 |
| Theo Pinson * | 27 | 0-3 | 0-1 | 4-4 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 4 | -6.6 |
| Garrison Brooks * | 17 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 0 | -0.8 |
| Cameron Johnson | 23 | 2-8 | 1-5 | 0-0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 5 | -1 | -3.5 |
| Sterling Manley | 12 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 4-4 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 6 | -9.0 |
| Jalek Felton | 8 | 0-2 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | -2 | -8.5 |
| Brandon Robinson | 7 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -0.2 |
| Andrew Platek | 3 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -3.3 |
| Kane Ma | 1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +0.0 |
| Walker Miller | 1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +0.0 |
| Aaron Rohlman | 1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +0.0 |
| Shea Rush | 1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +0.0 |
| Brandon Huffman | 1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +0.0 |
Virginia Cavaliers
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ty Jerome * | 35 | 3-9 | 2-6 | 0-0 | 3 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 8 | 6 | +5.9 |
| Devon Hall * | 35 | 6-8 | 4-4 | 0-0 | 2 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 16 | 18 | +14.9 |
| Isaiah Wilkins * | 34 | 3-7 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 6 | 7 | +7.8 |
| Kyle Guy * | 33 | 2-10 | 1-6 | 2-2 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 1 | +15.0 |
| Jack Salt * | 17 | 2-4 | 0-0 | 0-1 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 4 | -1.0 |
| De'Andre Hunter | 18 | 4-8 | 0-2 | 2-4 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10 | 9 | +13.0 |
| Nigel Johnson | 14 | 2-3 | 1-1 | 1-2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 3 | +2.5 |
| Mamadi Diakite | 9 | 2-3 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 4 | +4.3 |
| Marco Anthony | 1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -0.1 |
| Jay Huff | 1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +0.0 |
| Trevon Gross Jr. | 1 | 0-1 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -0.1 |
| Justice Bartley | 1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -0.1 |
| Austin Katstra | 1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +0.0 |
* = starter