Model Predictions
| Model | Miami Heat | Milwaukee Bucks | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 30.8% | 69.2% | +4.2 | ✗ (9.2 off) |
| Bradley-Terry | 40.4% | 59.6% | - | ✗ |
| Margin | 39.6% | 60.4% | +2.3 | ✗ (7.3 off) |
| Pythagorean | 47.2% | 52.8% | - | ✗ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 47.6% | 52.4% | - | ✗ |
| Log Adjusted | 47.6% | 52.4% | - | ✗ |
| Points Off/Def | 43.3% | 56.7% | - | ✗ |
Actual: Milwaukee Bucks -5 (101-106). Ratings: 2017-18 season-end ratings.
Miami Heat
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Richardson * | 34 | 6-16 | 2-5 | 0-0 | 7 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 14 | 10 | - |
| Goran Dragic * | 33 | 6-13 | 1-3 | 2-3 | 4 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 15 | 5 | - |
| Hassan Whiteside * | 31 | 10-12 | 0-0 | 7-9 | 14 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 2 | 27 | 33 | - |
| James Johnson * | 29 | 3-11 | 1-4 | 2-4 | 7 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 9 | 10 | - |
| Derrick Jones Jr. * | 21 | 1-3 | 0-1 | 3-4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 6 | - |
| Wayne Ellington | 27 | 3-7 | 3-6 | 2-2 | 5 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 11 | 12 | - |
| Justise Winslow | 26 | 2-5 | 2-2 | 0-0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 5 | - |
| Bam Adebayo | 18 | 2-6 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 6 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 8 | - |
| Kelly Olynyk | 16 | 5-9 | 1-3 | 4-5 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 15 | 5 | - |
Milwaukee Bucks
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Khris Middleton * | 40 | 11-22 | 3-8 | 0-0 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 25 | 11 | - |
| Giannis Antetokounmpo * | 38 | 6-15 | 2-3 | 8-15 | 10 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 22 | 26 | - |
| John Henson * | 33 | 4-7 | 0-0 | 2-2 | 10 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 10 | 13 | - |
| Eric Bledsoe * | 30 | 2-13 | 0-6 | 7-8 | 3 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 11 | 5 | - |
| Malcolm Brogdon * | 28 | 2-7 | 0-2 | 4-4 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 5 | - |
| Tony Snell | 23 | 4-5 | 4-5 | 0-0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 12 | 12 | - |
| Matthew Dellavedova | 18 | 2-3 | 2-2 | 2-2 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 8 | 8 | - |
| Thon Maker | 14 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | - |
| Sterling Brown | 12 | 1-3 | 0-2 | 1-1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 4 | - |
* = starter