Model Predictions
| Model | Milwaukee Bucks | Miami Heat | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 41.6% | 58.4% | +2.0 | ✓ (16.0 off) |
| Bradley-Terry | 45.3% | 54.7% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 39.4% | 60.6% | +2.4 | ✓ (15.6 off) |
| Pythagorean | 46.8% | 53.2% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 46.4% | 53.6% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 46.4% | 53.6% | - | ✓ |
| Points Off/Def | 43.2% | 56.8% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Miami Heat +18 (97-79). Ratings: 2017-18 season-end ratings.
Milwaukee Bucks
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Malcolm Brogdon * | 34 | 7-12 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 15 | 9 | - |
| Khris Middleton * | 33 | 3-16 | 1-8 | 9-10 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 16 | 7 | - |
| Eric Bledsoe * | 31 | 4-16 | 0-6 | 2-3 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 10 | -1 | - |
| Giannis Antetokounmpo * | 30 | 6-12 | 0-0 | 10-10 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 22 | 16 | - |
| John Henson * | 25 | 2-5 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 9 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 7 | - |
| Sterling Brown | 22 | 1-5 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 4 | - |
| Tony Snell | 20 | 1-4 | 1-4 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | -1 | - |
| Thon Maker | 16 | 0-5 | 0-1 | 2-2 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | - |
| Sean Kilpatrick | 12 | 0-2 | 0-2 | 2-2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | - |
| Matthew Dellavedova | 11 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | - |
| D.J. Wilson | 2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | - |
Miami Heat
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyler Johnson * | 34 | 5-11 | 3-8 | 1-1 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 14 | 12 | - |
| Goran Dragic * | 32 | 9-17 | 4-6 | 3-4 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 25 | 12 | - |
| Josh Richardson * | 30 | 6-9 | 2-2 | 2-2 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 16 | 14 | - |
| Hassan Whiteside * | 25 | 5-6 | 0-0 | 5-7 | 10 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 15 | 21 | - |
| James Johnson * | 25 | 2-8 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 4 | 8 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 11 | - |
| Wayne Ellington | 32 | 2-8 | 1-7 | 2-3 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 7 | 3 | - |
| Bam Adebayo | 27 | 2-6 | 0-0 | 2-2 | 4 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 9 | - |
| Kelly Olynyk | 17 | 3-7 | 0-3 | 1-1 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 7 | - |
| Justise Winslow | 13 | 1-4 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 7 | - |
* = starter