Model Predictions
| Model | Miami Heat | Charlotte Hornets | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 42.0% | 58.0% | - | ✗ |
| Bradley-Terry | 51.2% | 48.8% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 38.5% | 61.5% | +2.6 | ✗ (8.6 off) |
| Pythagorean | 46.4% | 53.6% | - | ✗ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 47.4% | 52.6% | - | ✗ |
| Log Adjusted | 47.3% | 52.7% | - | ✗ |
| Points Off/Def | 42.7% | 57.3% | - | ✗ |
Actual: Charlotte Hornets -6 (98-104). Predictions use season-end ratings.
Miami Heat
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| James Johnson * | 34 | 5-10 | 0-2 | 1-1 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 11 | 14 | - |
| Dion Waiters * | 33 | 5-14 | 0-5 | 2-2 | 4 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 12 | 8 | - |
| Josh Richardson * | 33 | 4-7 | 1-2 | 2-2 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 11 | 15 | - |
| Goran Dragic * | 26 | 2-10 | 0-3 | 4-4 | 3 | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 8 | 7 | - |
| Kelly Olynyk * | 24 | 4-9 | 1-4 | 2-4 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 11 | 7 | - |
| Tyler Johnson | 26 | 5-6 | 4-4 | 2-2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 16 | 12 | - |
| Wayne Ellington | 24 | 5-10 | 5-10 | 1-1 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 16 | 11 | - |
| Bam Adebayo | 21 | 5-6 | 0-0 | 1-1 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 11 | 9 | - |
| Jordan Mickey | 15 | 4-6 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 10 | - |
Charlotte Hornets
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nicolas Batum * | 36 | 2-7 | 0-0 | 1-1 | 3 | 10 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 12 | - |
| Kemba Walker * | 33 | 8-22 | 4-10 | 5-6 | 4 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 25 | 10 | - |
| Dwight Howard * | 32 | 4-8 | 0-0 | 7-12 | 16 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 15 | 24 | - |
| Michael Kidd-Gilchrist * | 28 | 6-8 | 0-0 | 1-2 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 13 | 5 | - |
| Marvin Williams * | 27 | 2-6 | 1-4 | 0-0 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 5 | 2 | - |
| Jeremy Lamb | 21 | 4-10 | 2-4 | 2-2 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12 | 6 | - |
| Frank Kaminsky | 20 | 3-11 | 2-6 | 2-2 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10 | 4 | - |
| Michael Carter-Williams | 14 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 2-2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 4 | - |
| Malik Monk | 9 | 1-3 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | -1 | - |
| Johnny O'Bryant III | 8 | 2-6 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 2 | - |
| Treveon Graham | 6 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | - |
* = starter