Model Predictions
| Model | Duke Blue Devils | North Carolina Tar Heels | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 71.2% | 28.8% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 59.5% | 40.5% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 54.8% | 45.2% | -1.0 | ✓ (9.0 off) |
| Pythagorean | 39.8% | 60.2% | - | ✗ |
| Efficiency | 17.0% | 83.0% | - | ✗ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 15.4% | 84.6% | - | ✗ |
| Log Adjusted | 15.3% | 84.7% | - | ✗ |
Actual: North Carolina Tar Heels -10 (83-93). Predictions use season-end ratings.
Duke Blue Devils
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Luke Kennard | 39 | 4-7 | 2-2 | 10-10 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 20 | 18 | - |
| Jayson Tatum | 36 | 8-15 | 1-4 | 7-7 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 24 | 17 | - |
| Grayson Allen | 30 | 5-10 | 5-6 | 3-4 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 18 | 13 | - |
| Frank Jackson | 30 | 4-11 | 2-5 | 5-6 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 15 | 9 | - |
| Amile Jefferson | 28 | 2-4 | 0-0 | 4-6 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 8 | 11 | - |
| Matt Jones | 21 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2-2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | - |
| Harry Giles | 15 | 2-3 | 0-0 | 2-2 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 6 | 15 | - |
| Marques Bolden | 1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - |
North Carolina Tar Heels
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Theo Pinson | 34 | 2-9 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 6 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 7 | - |
| Justin Jackson | 33 | 6-22 | 3-11 | 1-2 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 16 | 2 | - |
| Isaiah Hicks | 32 | 6-9 | 0-0 | 7-7 | 7 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 19 | 20 | - |
| Kennedy Meeks | 27 | 9-14 | 0-0 | 1-3 | 12 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 19 | 19 | - |
| J. Berry II | 24 | 3-8 | 0-3 | 4-5 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 10 | 5 | - |
| Nate Britt | 24 | 3-8 | 1-3 | 1-1 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 6 | - |
| Tony Bradley | 11 | 2-4 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 4 | - |
| Luke Maye | 7 | 0-2 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -1 | - |
| Brandon Robinson | 6 | 0-1 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | - |
| Seventh Woods | 2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -1 | - |
| Shea Rush | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - |
| Kanler Coker | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | - |
| Aaron Rohlman | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - |
| Stilman White | 0 | 1-1 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | - |
* = starter