Model Predictions
| Model | Cal Poly Mustangs | UC Davis Aggies | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 14.0% | 86.0% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 19.4% | 80.6% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 19.3% | 80.7% | +7.9 | ✓ (3.1 off) |
| Pythagorean | 31.9% | 68.1% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 19.8% | 80.2% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 19.8% | 80.2% | - | ✓ |
| Points Off/Def | 32.3% | 67.7% | - | ✓ |
Actual: UC Davis Aggies +11 (66-55). Predictions use season-end ratings.
Cal Poly Mustangs
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Donovan Fields | 38 | 3-8 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 6 | 1 | - |
| Ridge Shipley | 30 | 6-14 | 5-9 | 2-2 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 19 | 6 | - |
| Victor Joseph | 29 | 2-11 | 0-3 | 3-3 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 7 | -3 | - |
| Zach Gordon | 27 | 4-6 | 0-0 | 1-2 | 12 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 9 | 20 | - |
| Luke Meikle | 22 | 3-6 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 3 | - |
| Kyle Toth | 22 | 2-7 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 4 | - |
| Jakub Niziol | 18 | 0-5 | 0-5 | 0-0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | -1 | - |
| Hank Hollingsworth | 12 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2-2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 6 | - |
| Aleks Abrams | 2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - |
| Trevor John | 0 | 0-1 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | - |
UC Davis Aggies
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lawrence White | 36 | 4-7 | 3-5 | 2-2 | 9 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 13 | 21 | - |
| Darius Graham | 33 | 3-5 | 1-2 | 1-2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 8 | 1 | - |
| Chima Moneke | 32 | 4-15 | 0-0 | 3-5 | 18 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 11 | 17 | - |
| Brynton Lemar | 28 | 4-8 | 1-1 | 9-10 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 18 | 9 | - |
| J.T. Adenrele | 23 | 3-6 | 0-0 | 3-5 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 9 | 15 | - |
| Siler Schneider | 21 | 1-11 | 0-3 | 0-0 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -3 | - |
| Garrison Goode | 17 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 1-2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 4 | - |
| Michael Henn | 7 | 1-4 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -1 | - |
| Michael Onyebalu | 3 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - |
* = starter