Model Predictions
| Model | Bowling Green Falcons | Toledo Rockets | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 16.0% | 84.0% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 31.2% | 68.8% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 14.7% | 85.3% | +9.7 | ✓ (5.3 off) |
| Pythagorean | 34.9% | 65.1% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 15.6% | 84.4% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 15.4% | 84.6% | - | ✓ |
| Points Off/Def | 29.1% | 70.9% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Toledo Rockets +15 (77-62). Predictions use season-end ratings.
Bowling Green Falcons
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wesley Alcegaire * | 30 | 7-15 | 2-6 | 1-1 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 17 | 9 | - |
| Dylan Frye * | 30 | 2-8 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 5 | -2 | - |
| Rodrick Caldwell * | 25 | 1-4 | 1-3 | 4-4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 6 | - |
| Demajeo Wiggins * | 20 | 4-6 | 0-0 | 2-4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 10 | 8 | - |
| Zack Denny * | 17 | 3-7 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 0 | - |
| Antwon Lillard | 27 | 0-5 | 0-0 | 4-6 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 9 | - |
| Rasheed Worrell | 20 | 2-3 | 0-0 | 1-2 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 4 | - |
| Ismail Ali | 19 | 4-4 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 8 | 8 | - |
| Malik Hluchoweckyj | 8 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -1 | - |
| Matt Fox | 4 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | - |
Toledo Rockets
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Lauf * | 34 | 3-6 | 2-3 | 1-3 | 8 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 17 | - |
| J. Williams * | 34 | 6-16 | 2-6 | 4-4 | 4 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 18 | 10 | - |
| J. Sanford * | 32 | 4-9 | 1-4 | 3-3 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 12 | 7 | - |
| S. Taylor Jr. * | 27 | 3-5 | 0-0 | 3-4 | 10 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 9 | 14 | - |
| L. Knapke * | 21 | 4-5 | 0-1 | 4-4 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 12 | 19 | - |
| N. Navigato | 29 | 2-9 | 2-5 | 2-2 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 5 | - |
| J. Roberts | 14 | 1-4 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | - |
| T. Adway | 7 | 2-3 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 3 | - |
| M. Schaffer | 1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - |
| L. Antunez | 1 | 0-1 | 0-1 | 2-2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | - |
* = starter