Model Predictions
| Model | Atlanta Dream | Phoenix Mercury | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 30.1% | 69.9% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 37.1% | 62.9% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 38.4% | 61.6% | - | ✓ |
| Pythagorean | 46.8% | 53.2% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 42.3% | 57.7% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 42.2% | 57.8% | - | ✓ |
| Points Off/Def | 37.9% | 62.1% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Phoenix Mercury +14 (84-70). Win probabilities: out-of-sample forecasts from the weekly fit before the game, the same forecasts as the model pages.
RAPM GS requires a reviewed game-score run and a qualified player and game match. A dash means the score is unavailable.
Atlanta Dream
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Nums | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brittney Sykes * | 33 | 12-19 | 2-5 | 7-11 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 33 | 22 | - |
| Sancho Lyttle * | 33 | 1-6 | 1-1 | 3-4 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 4 | - |
| Elizabeth Williams * | 32 | 1-8 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -1 | - |
| Layshia Clarendon * | 25 | 0-8 | 0-2 | 2-3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | -6 | - |
| Tiffany Hayes * | 25 | 5-9 | 2-4 | 3-3 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 15 | 9 | - |
| Tamera Young | 18 | 2-4 | 1-2 | 0-2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 4 | - |
| Matee Ajavon | 9 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | - |
| Damiris Dantas | 8 | 1-6 | 1-4 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | -3 | - |
| Bria Holmes | 7 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | - |
| Aneika Morello | 6 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | - |
Phoenix Mercury
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Nums | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brittney Griner * | 36 | 10-17 | 0-0 | 10-12 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 30 | 21 | - |
| Leilani Mitchell * | 29 | 4-7 | 2-3 | 8-9 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 18 | 17 | - |
| Diana Taurasi * | 26 | 3-12 | 2-10 | 1-1 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 9 | 1 | - |
| Camille Smith * | 24 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-2 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8 | - |
| Yvonne Turner * | 15 | 1-4 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | - |
| Stephanie Talbot | 21 | 2-3 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 7 | - |
| Emma Cannon | 17 | 1-5 | 0-1 | 1-2 | 10 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 9 | - |
| Danielle Robinson | 17 | 1-4 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | - |
| Monique Currie | 7 | 5-6 | 2-2 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 12 | 7 | - |
| Cayla George | 1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - |
| Alexis Prince | 1 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | - |
* = starter