Model Predictions
| Model | Los Angeles Sparks | Phoenix Mercury | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 53.7% | 46.3% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 69.6% | 30.4% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 57.1% | 42.9% | - | ✓ |
| Pythagorean | 60.5% | 39.5% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 75.1% | 24.9% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 75.2% | 24.8% | - | ✓ |
| Points Off/Def | 57.8% | 42.2% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Phoenix Mercury -15 (67-82). Win probabilities: out-of-sample forecasts from the weekly fit before the game, the same forecasts as the model pages.
RAPM GS requires a reviewed game-score run and a qualified player and game match. A dash means the score is unavailable.
Los Angeles Sparks
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Nums | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Odyssey Sims * | 35 | 12-19 | 0-2 | 4-4 | 6 | 8 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 28 | 25 | - |
| Chelsea Gray * | 33 | 5-11 | 2-3 | 0-0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 12 | 6 | - |
| Candace Parker * | 29 | 5-11 | 2-2 | 0-0 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 12 | 8 | - |
| Nneka Ogwumike * | 28 | 9-17 | 0-0 | 3-3 | 10 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 21 | 18 | - |
| Alana Beard * | 28 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 1-1 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 9 | - |
| Jantel Lavender | 16 | 2-6 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 0 | - |
| Essence Carson | 16 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | - |
| Sydney Wiese | 6 | 0-3 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -3 | - |
| Tiffany Jackson | 3 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | - |
| Sandrine Gruda | 1 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | - |
Phoenix Mercury
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Nums | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brittney Griner * | 30 | 8-14 | 0-0 | 2-5 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 5 | 18 | 11 | - |
| Camille Smith * | 28 | 3-9 | 2-4 | 1-2 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 9 | 3 | - |
| Yvonne Turner * | 28 | 3-7 | 0-2 | 1-2 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 7 | 4 | - |
| Monique Currie * | 17 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 0-1 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 4 | - |
| Danielle Robinson * | 16 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -1 | - |
| Leilani Mitchell | 23 | 2-5 | 0-1 | 2-2 | 3 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 8 | - |
| Stephanie Talbot | 17 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 1-2 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 4 | - |
| Alexis Prince | 17 | 4-6 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 9 | 9 | - |
| Emma Cannon | 13 | 4-6 | 0-0 | 3-4 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 11 | 8 | - |
| Cayla George | 6 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | - |
* = starter