Model Predictions
| Model | App State Mountaineers | Texas State Bobcats | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 14.0% | 86.0% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 20.6% | 79.4% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 17.0% | 83.0% | +8.7 | ✓ (0.3 off) |
| Pythagorean | 26.7% | 73.3% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 18.4% | 81.6% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 18.4% | 81.6% | - | ✓ |
| Points Off/Def | 30.5% | 69.5% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Texas State Bobcats +9 (67-58). Predictions use season-end ratings.
App State Mountaineers
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ronshad Shabazz * | 33 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 19 | 24 | - |
| Kelvin Robinson * | 29 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 17 | - |
| Griffin Kinney * | 28 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 11 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 13 | 21 | - |
| Emarius Logan * | 26 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 8 | 14 | - |
| Tyrell Johnson * | 21 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 4 | 10 | - |
| Patrick Good | 21 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 4 | - |
| Isaac Johnson | 17 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 9 | - |
| Jake Babic | 12 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | - |
| Craig Hinton | 8 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 4 | - |
| Jake Wilson | 3 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | - |
| Matt O'Boyle | 2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -1 | - |
Texas State Bobcats
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kavin Gilder-Tilbury * | 35 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 21 | 29 | - |
| Bobby Conley * | 33 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 9 | 15 | - |
| Nijal Pearson * | 31 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 11 | 15 | - |
| Ojai Black * | 28 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 4 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 10 | 18 | - |
| Maljhum McCrea * | 11 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 8 | - |
| Immanuel King | 28 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 11 | - |
| Nedeljko Prijovic | 15 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 7 | 12 | - |
| Marlin Davis | 13 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4 | - |
| Tyler Blount | 4 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - |
| Courtney Julien | 2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | - |
* = starter