Model Predictions
| Model | Duke Blue Devils | North Carolina Tar Heels | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 71.2% | 28.8% | - | ✗ |
| Bradley-Terry | 59.5% | 40.5% | - | ✗ |
| Margin | 54.8% | 45.2% | -1.0 | ✗ (8.0 off) |
| Pythagorean | 39.8% | 60.2% | - | ✓ |
| Efficiency | 17.0% | 83.0% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 15.4% | 84.6% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 15.3% | 84.7% | - | ✓ |
Actual: North Carolina Tar Heels +7 (90-83). Predictions use season-end ratings.
Duke Blue Devils
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Luke Kennard | 39 | 9-17 | 2-6 | 8-9 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 28 | 19 | - |
| Amile Jefferson | 36 | 5-8 | 0-0 | 2-2 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 12 | 14 | - |
| Frank Jackson | 32 | 4-9 | 1-3 | 6-7 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 15 | 13 | - |
| Jayson Tatum | 30 | 4-13 | 2-4 | 3-4 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 13 | 5 | - |
| Matt Jones | 26 | 0-3 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - |
| Grayson Allen | 23 | 2-4 | 2-4 | 8-11 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 14 | 13 | - |
| Harry Giles | 13 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1-2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 | - |
| Marques Bolden | 1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - |
North Carolina Tar Heels
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Berry II | 36 | 9-14 | 5-5 | 5-6 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 28 | 18 | - |
| Theo Pinson | 31 | 0-4 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 3 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 5 | - |
| Justin Jackson | 30 | 6-17 | 1-7 | 2-3 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15 | 4 | - |
| Kennedy Meeks | 24 | 3-7 | 0-0 | 2-4 | 8 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 8 | 10 | - |
| Isaiah Hicks | 22 | 7-9 | 0-0 | 7-8 | 9 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 21 | 22 | - |
| Luke Maye | 18 | 4-5 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 7 | - |
| Nate Britt | 16 | 0-3 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -2 | - |
| Tony Bradley | 15 | 4-5 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 7 | - |
| Seventh Woods | 3 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | - |
| Brandon Robinson | 3 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | - |
| Stilman White | 1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - |
| Kanler Coker | 1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - |
* = starter