Model Predictions
| Model | Arkansas State Red Wolves | UTEP Miners | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 27.5% | 72.5% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 52.9% | 47.1% | - | ✗ |
| Margin | 55.2% | 44.8% | - | ✗ |
| Pythagorean | 54.2% | 45.8% | - | ✗ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 72.5% | 27.5% | - | ✗ |
| Log Adjusted | 72.2% | 27.8% | - | ✗ |
| Points Off/Def | 55.2% | 44.8% | - | ✗ |
Actual: UTEP Miners +6 (74-68). Win probabilities: out-of-sample forecasts from the weekly fit before the game, the same forecasts as the model pages.