Model Predictions
| Model | Ball State Cardinals | Saint Louis Billikens | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 22.8% | 77.2% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 43.6% | 56.4% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 41.9% | 58.1% | - | ✓ |
| Pythagorean | 47.9% | 52.1% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 44.5% | 55.5% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 44.6% | 55.4% | - | ✓ |
| Points Off/Def | 41.0% | 59.0% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Saint Louis Billikens +4 (59-55). Win probabilities: out-of-sample forecasts from the weekly fit before the game, the same forecasts as the model pages.